Win Expectancies for Proline Bet Options

Select Sport

The charts in this section show the gerneral probabilities for the various proline options offered for each sport. For the years 2002-present the proline odds for each event are also evaluated and the win-loss expectancies and values for the bet options is given. Although the win percentages were calcualted using OLGC tie rules, players from other provinces can easily correct for this as the ties will just be the difference between the Visit and Home results.

Even a quick glance at these figures show that the bet options fall into widely different ranges of loss expectancies. It is clear that some of these should just basically be avoided at all times. Others come in at a sometimes surprising low loss rate and are worthy of closer analysis.

For the Nhl, playoff games are not included because of the different style of team play in playoff games. At a later time I will add those in a seperate section. In football both the Superbowl game and the Grey Cup game are excluded. In all other sports, all games including playoff games and neutral site games are included.

I'll make a few general observations here. In both football and basketball the Visit bet compares very badly to the Home bet. This is more a function of the dog doing badly compared to the favourite. Had the bets been grouped in that manner I would expect this difference to be even larger. To expect a team that is a 5 point underdog (for example) to not only win but then cover a 3.5/5.5 points spread is a low probability result. The payoffs for this are generally way too low and in individual cases often incur an expected loss running over 50%!

With the possible exceptions of the Cfl and baseball (partially) the + bets also come out very badly. The extra payout is not in line with the increased risk. The + bets gernerally lose at a 30% rate compared with about half of that for V-T-H combinations.

The win probabilities and expectancies for the different sports can be selected from the drop down list at the top of the page.