Search found 233 matches

by MattyKGB
Tue Oct 29, 2019 3:40 pm
Forum: Theory and Strategy
Topic: Pinacle sports: Toward a theory of everything
Replies: 1
Views: 1064

Re: Pinacle sports: Toward a theory of everything

That’s me. I don’t post much on here any more but feel free to reach out on twitter @PlusEVAnalytics if any questions.
by MattyKGB
Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Proline Picks and Plays
Topic: Pinnacle Lines
Replies: 26
Views: 8347

Re: Pinnacle Lines

Thanks PLP - reach out if you’d like help with the modeling / testing aspects.
by MattyKGB
Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:20 am
Forum: Proline Picks and Plays
Topic: PSA: Large soccer underdogs = fake edges
Replies: 29
Views: 8179

Re: PSA: Large soccer underdogs = fake edges

Probabilities on CFL/NFL football totals seem off too, too much of a shift in probability for each half point off from pinnacle. example? I am satisfied that the football totals are accurate. There may of course be differences due to how the probabilities are calculated. I can think of several meth...
by MattyKGB
Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:23 pm
Forum: Proline Picks and Plays
Topic: PSA: Large soccer underdogs = fake edges
Replies: 29
Views: 8179

Re: PSA: Large soccer underdogs = fake edges

I think you math nerds are missing the forest for the trees. We could go back and forth forever on the best abstract model, but we can all agree that PLP is seriously overestimating these soccer dog edges. Some of us get their kicks from finding problems, some of us get their kicks from solving the...
by MattyKGB
Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:43 pm
Forum: Proline Picks and Plays
Topic: PSA: Large soccer underdogs = fake edges
Replies: 29
Views: 8179

Re: PSA: Large soccer underdogs = fake edges

Here's a worksheet so you can play with the 4 methods yourself.
by MattyKGB
Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:43 pm
Forum: Proline Picks and Plays
Topic: PSA: Large soccer underdogs = fake edges
Replies: 29
Views: 8179

Re: PSA: Large soccer underdogs = fake edges

Ok gang, buckle up...it's math time. The purpose of this exercise is to determine the best way to convert a given set of money lines (with vig included) into implied win probabilities. Terminology: "Vig" in this context means the sum of the odds-implied "raw" win probabilities minus 100%. "Best way"...
by MattyKGB
Sat Sep 02, 2017 3:02 pm
Forum: Proline Picks and Plays
Topic: PSA: Large soccer underdogs = fake edges
Replies: 29
Views: 8179

Re: PSA: Large soccer underdogs = fake edges

Do you have any source or theoretical basis for this model? It seems weird to me, and it breaks down completely in some extreme cases where odds-implied probability = true probability - (1/2 or 1/3 of vig) could reach zero or even go negative I think it only breaks down on 3-way lines (in very extr...
by MattyKGB
Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Proline Picks and Plays
Topic: PSA: Large soccer underdogs = fake edges
Replies: 29
Views: 8179

Re: PSA: Large soccer underdogs = fake edges

2) The standard no-vig calculation used by PLP rests on the assumption that the vig is distributed proportionally across the 3-way lines. That assumption makes for convenient calculations, but does not generally hold true--especially for large underdogs. A more accurate model is that market makers ...
by MattyKGB
Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Proline Picks and Plays
Topic: "Jimmy's" story
Replies: 17
Views: 4206

Re: "Jimmy's" story

Ain't no such things as halfway sharps
by MattyKGB
Sat Apr 22, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Proline Picks and Plays
Topic: My introduction...
Replies: 14
Views: 3020

Re: My introduction...

No sarcasm, I'm really anxiously awaiting what you have to contribute. So are we going to kick some knowledge or what?