prolineplayer.com - The Forum

Hi all, I don't post on forums much any more but was feeling a little nostalgic this morning for obvious reasons. July 28 2007 was when I first discovered that sports could be beaten and that sports betting analytics was something I wanted to spend most of my free time doing. https://www.cappersmall...

Also annoying is that the ticket you're given will show the actual odds. You can be sure that the web site wont be updated in real time. This means you'll have to check each ticket as it comes out to see that it was at the expected payout so that you have the option to void it. Retailers will love ...

That’s me. I don’t post much on here any more but feel free to reach out on twitter @PlusEVAnalytics if any questions.

Thanks PLP - reach out if you’d like help with the modeling / testing aspects.

Probabilities on CFL/NFL football totals seem off too, too much of a shift in probability for each half point off from pinnacle. example? I am satisfied that the football totals are accurate. There may of course be differences due to how the probabilities are calculated. I can think of several meth...

I think you math nerds are missing the forest for the trees. We could go back and forth forever on the best abstract model, but we can all agree that PLP is seriously overestimating these soccer dog edges. Some of us get their kicks from finding problems, some of us get their kicks from solving the...

Here's a worksheet so you can play with the 4 methods yourself.

Ok gang, buckle up...it's math time. The purpose of this exercise is to determine the best way to convert a given set of money lines (with vig included) into implied win probabilities. Terminology: "Vig" in this context means the sum of the odds-implied "raw" win probabilities minus 100%. "Best way"...

Do you have any source or theoretical basis for this model? It seems weird to me, and it breaks down completely in some extreme cases where odds-implied probability = true probability - (1/2 or 1/3 of vig) could reach zero or even go negative I think it only breaks down on 3-way lines (in very extr...

2) The standard no-vig calculation used by PLP rests on the assumption that the vig is distributed proportionally across the 3-way lines. That assumption makes for convenient calculations, but does not generally hold true--especially for large underdogs. A more accurate model is that market makers ...