prolineplayer.com - The Forum

Hi all, I've built a little model to evaluate the OLG strikeouts prop. Sharing it for free because that's what a nice guy I am. Instructions: 1) In the "Team Strikeout Data" tab, copy columns A through H from http://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/strikeouts-per-game. 2) In the "Calc" tab, fill in all...

Whoever said that PS is excluded from the total, they're probably right. Same with pools and props, I'd guess. PL only.

I have a way, but it requires the use of the Excel solver module (or similar optimization algorithm) so you probably couldn't build it into your site. I guess I could just build a lookup table for you though...

I'm totally stumped here. 11 games in, there have been 0 ties and 1 game under 2.5. Why? The tie and under odds have been skyrocketing on pinnacle, for teams that have not even played a game yet. Why??? Is there something that was overlooked by the market (the humidity? the ball?) and is now being p...

If there's any money in these cards it's going to be in the correlations. It would be a fairly substantial exercise to quantify the correlations and I just don't have the time right now. So I haven't been a player in MLB props this year.

For Seager, last season he had 160 hits in 695 plate appearances. He hits near the bottom of the order...looking at his game log for this season he usually gets 4 plate appearances per start with the occasional 3 and 5 thrown in. Binomial distribution with 4 plate appearances and 160/695 probability...

In general, if visiting team has probability p and home team has probability q of scoring in each inning and innings are independent of each other, then prob that V team scores first = p + p(1-p)(1-q) + p(1-p)^2 (1-q)^2 +... = p / (1 - (1-p)(1-q) ) using the formula for a geometric series. So if p =...

Haven't played a single props card yet this season but 3u4u8o9u and 2o7u look mildly intriguing. Any thoughts?

They were, until we beat the crap out of them last year on team hits, LOB and strikeouts. So they responded by raising the vig on those props.

My 2 theories with absolutely no evidence to back them up: 1) Scorers must record the player who had the giveaway, not just the team. With fast action and greater familiarity with the home team's players, this may be easier to do with the home team. 2) Scorers may be more likely to record would-be V...