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But on the day he was traded to Pittsburgh you would have regarded him as a 1.95 shot player, right?

The probability of someone who averages 1.95 shots per game getting 59 or more shots over a 15 game stretch is 0.0000004.

Edited to add: For a thin-tailed distribution like Poisson or Binomial, a 15 game sample carries more weight than one might think.

PLP - Perron has 1.95 shots per game with Edm and 3.93 per game with Pit. I don't think your model is picking that up. 4U is no good.

I've only ever seen odds change on Tuesdays, Fridays and Sundays.

Goal scored in 92' is extra time.
If the goal had been scored in the 2nd minute of injury time it would have been recorded as 90' or 90'+2.

Happening again. Picking up 1st period lines for NHL too.

Hi PLP - your site is picking up 1H lines from Pinnacle instead of the game lines.

Thx
M

First, evaluate each team's win probability. This can be done using Pinnacle lines and a simple efficient market calculation (don't forget to take out the vig!) Then, model the expected # of winners as a function of each team's odds. I've never done this myself but something like a generalized linea...

Thank you sir :) I totally forgot about that strikeout model. I had problems getting it to work and forgot all about it something about a compile error if I remember correctly. Did it work for everyone else? Try hitting alt+f11 to bring up the VBA window, then go to tools, references and make sure ...

One other thing a good model should account for but mine doesn't - the home plate umpire. If anyone has stats on strikeout rates by umpire, please share.

Edit: found it: http://www.donbest.com/mlb/umpires/