What is an edge?

[mlansky]

Yes, correct. For this reason you will find it easier to look for edges on bad ML lines rather than bad spreads. The edges can still be there on bad spreads but it will be harder for you to identify and quantify them.

MattyKGB,

Thank you for the reply and for clarifying this for me. Just out of curiosity, I'm going to see if my friend can get me the bbl lines from his bookie and then compare those lines to Pinnacle. If you want, I'll let you know how that goes/turns out.

Regards,

mlansky

[mlansky]

Sorry guys in advance if I'm posting this in the wrong area on of the forum. On the OKC/Hou (NBA) game 6 last night, a local bookie's line here was OKC -1 where on Pinnacle Houston was -1. So does that mean there's an edge on Houston +1 with this local bookie? I watched that video about if you can beat the closing line in baseball in the long run, you'll have an edge over the bookie in the long run. My question is how can I figure out my edge in regards to this betting scenario? Even though OKC won the game, if I was wager on soft lines like this would I have a long term edge over this local bookie?

You never mentioned the vig on Pinny's line but assuming the juice was identical on both sides, you had about a breakeven bet at -110. 1 is a weak number in the NBA and the 0 is obviously worthless.

All you need to figure this out are push probabilities. If you don't have these just see how much Pinny pays you for selling a half point off a number. It's worth slightly more than this. They tend to overcharge substantally for selling you points and will offer you slightly less than fair value when you sell them a point.

BTS,

Thank you so much for the reply and sorry for the late reply. I'm not entirely sure what the vig on Pinny's line was since it was just a quick observation when a friend of mine just happened to tell me the line that his bookie had given him. I see what you mean about 1 being a weak number in the NBA and 0 being worth nothing.The next time I come across this, I'll be way more observant and check every thing out in depth. I like the approach/method you mentioned about checking Pinnacle to see what they're selling a half point off of a number and vice versa. If a local book is giving you soft lines, you could possibly make some good $ off of that. Like MattyKGB stated, it works way better with moneylines though.

Kind regards,

mlansky

[mlansky]

I promised I would elaborate on how to calculate the win probability from the Pinnacle line. Here it is...

Calculation works the easiest if you use the decimal line. Suppose you have V 2.00, H 1.926. First, figure out the juice that is built into the line. 1/2.00 + 1/1.926 = 1.0192

Now multiply each side by 1.0192 to get V 2.0384, H 1.963. This is the "fair" line, or no-juice line.

Win probability is simply the reciprocal of those numbers. So, visitor win prob = 1/2.0384 = 49% and home win prob = 1/1.963 = 51%.

Try a few for yourself and see if they match up to PLP's win probabilities. If it doesn't match up, could be a timing issue. His site updates every 15 minutes but the Pinnacle lines are updating all the time.

Chin,

Sorry guys in advance if I'm posting this in the wrong area on of the forum. On the OKC/Hou (NBA) game 6 last night, a local bookie's line here was OKC -1 where on Pinnacle Houston was -1. So does that mean there's an edge on Houston +1 with this local bookie? I watched that video about if you can beat the closing line in baseball in the long run, you'll have an edge over the bookie in the long run. My question is how can I figure out my edge in regards to this betting scenario? Even though OKC won the game, if I was wager on soft lines like this would I have a long term edge over this local bookie?

Kind regards,

mlansky

A couple of good answers already but thought this might help as well.

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/h ... alculator/

Gives the push probability for different numbers. I haven't checked myself but believe it is considered to be fairly accurate.

PLP

PLP,

Thanks for the link. I've checked out some of those tools in the past. Most notably the 'arbitrage calculator'. I'll definitely try it out the half point calculator next time I come across a line discrepancy of that nature. I'm going to see if a friend of mine who uses a local bookie can pass on his bookies MLB lines. That way I can compare them to Pinnacle. I mean even if the lines are similar and there's no real valued edge, it will still be good practice to do for the long run. Practice what you preach!

Kind regards,

mlansky

[McGuire72]

Sorry guys in advance if I'm posting this in the wrong area on of the forum. On the OKC/Hou (NBA) game 6 last night, a local bookie's line here was OKC -1 where on Pinnacle Houston was -1. So does that mean there's an edge on Houston +1 with this local bookie? I watched that video about if you can beat the closing line in baseball in the long run, you'll have an edge over the bookie in the long run. My question is how can I figure out my edge in regards to this betting scenario? Even though OKC won the game, if I was wager on soft lines like this would I have a long term edge over this local bookie?

You never mentioned the vig on Pinny's line but assuming the juice was identical on both sides, you had about a breakeven bet at -110. 1 is a weak number in the NBA and the 0 is obviously worthless.

All you need to figure this out are push probabilities. If you don't have these just see how much Pinny pays you for selling a half point off a number. It's worth slightly more than this. They tend to overcharge substantally for selling you points and will offer you slightly less than fair value when you sell them a point.

BTS,

Thank you so much for the reply and sorry for the late reply. I'm not entirely sure what the vig on Pinny's line was since it was just a quick observation when a friend of mine just happened to tell me the line that his bookie had given him. I see what you mean about 1 being a weak number in the NBA and 0 being worth nothing.The next time I come across this, I'll be way more observant and check every thing out in depth. I like the approach/method you mentioned about checking Pinnacle to see what they're selling a half point off of a number and vice versa. If a local book is giving you soft lines, you could possibly make some good $ off of that. Like MattyKGB stated, it works way better with moneylines though.

Kind regards,

mlansky

I would be careful running these sorts of plays against local bookies. Depending how much action they take, they usually have big pockets and big friends who may or may not carry big weapons. They likely wouldn't appreciate it if they found out you were running their lines against online sportsbooks and trying to take advantage of their operation in such a way. OLG and WCLC are government-run organizations with no means or ability to hunt you down and physically harm you... your local bookie may be a little less tolerant.

[PropGod]

Unless you have a death wish...... I wouldnt recommend playing these edges at a local bookie.
Alot of these books are ran by the asian mafia's and they dont fuck around.

[mlansky]

I would be careful running these sorts of plays against local bookies. Depending how much action they take, they usually have big pockets and big friends who may or may not carry big weapons. They likely wouldn't appreciate it if they found out you were running their lines against online sportsbooks and trying to take advantage of their operation in such a way. OLG and WCLC are government-run organizations with no means or ability to hunt you down and physically harm you... your local bookie may be a little less tolerant. [/quote][/quote][/quote]

McGuire,

Thanks for the post and your concern. I don't think it's like that around here, but I guess you could never really be too sure. I don't think this guy in particular would go after someone for doing that, but like I just stated above, you never really know. The two books here that I'm aware of (I've head there are more) only give out their lines like 30 minutes before the start of a game. The guy will just text a friend of mine the lines and if he likes anything and wants to wager, he will just text him back with his bet. Alot of times, the lines are jacked up as well such as giving a publicly backed team less points, etc. I'll keep you posted if my friend ever decides to send me the lines. He hasn't gotten around to do that yet.

Kind Regads,

mlansky