What is an edge?

[ChinMusic]

Ok so 95% of you probably know this already. But since this is a new forum, there may be some who have wandered in here, curious about how this stuff works.

Start by asking this question. If my ticket pays 8.00, what win probability do I need in order to make money? The answer is simply 1/8 = 12.5%. If you can win that ticket more than 12.5% of the time, you will come out ahead.

But how can you figure out the win probability of your ticket? If all the events on the ticket are independent (i.e. not correlated) then your chances of winning the ticket can be found by multiplying out the chances of winning each event. So if first event has a 60% to win, 2nd has 50%, 3rd has 40%, then your chance of winning the ticket are .6 x .5 x .4 = .12 or 12%.

So far, this is just math, not really a matter of opinion. To disagree with this much would be like not believing in the law of gravity. The next part is where some may have disagreement. But to those of us who play edges, it has proven to be accurate.

*** If we assume that the offshore markets are efficient, then we can use them to figure out the win chances for any particular event. ***

I will elaborate on that calculation in another post. It's easier to use ProlinePlayer.com and look up the "Win Probability".

For any single event, Edge = Win Probability times Payout minus 1. So if an event pays 5.00, and wins 22% of the time, edge = 5.0 x .22 - 1 = .10, or +10% edge.

This event is going to lose 78% of the time. And when that happens, certain people always lament "another failed gold star". But the key thing to know is that the times you do cash your ticket will more than pay for the tickets you lose. That's the net result of all the math. In the long run, your rate of return will equal your edge. If you are playing tickets with +15% edge, you will cash $115 on average, for every $100 you spend.

More can be said, but I will stop here for now.

[LordCC]

Chin

For example, since they have introduced baseball point spread, I have a question. I have seen where a team to win is a shaded edge or a positive edge o the proline side. However, at the same time, it is closer to an edge on the other team in terms of the point spread. I am not sure if it has or will ever be an edge both ways. But for sake of argument, there is an edge on team a via proline, but edge on team b via point spread.

How does one play it?

[ChinMusic]

Chin

For example, since they have introduced baseball point spread, I have a question. I have seen where a team to win is a shaded edge or a positive edge o the proline side. However, at the same time, it is closer to an edge on the other team in terms of the point spread. I am not sure if it has or will ever be an edge both ways. But for sake of argument, there is an edge on team a via proline, but edge on team b via point spread.

How does one play it?

I would look at ProLine and PointSpread as separate things, and just play whichever edges are there. Wouldn't really change my thinking much if there was an edge on opposite sides. Actually that's not totally true. I would like the situation a little bit more than normal, because having both sides decreases the volatility of the bankroll.

[PaiUph]

Well obviously a -.5 point spread....the edge is always who's favoured. The proline moneyline if you will are the edges one should pay more attention too. Gl

[ProlinePlayer]

I hope that Chin will provide us with more posts like this.

As he says, a lot, maybe even most, here know this stuff. But I suspect that there are quite a few reading the posts here that do not - at least not a well as Chin has explained it.

For anyone here who does not understand what edge play is I really urge you to read and reread Chin's post until the logic becomes clear. Trust me on this, an understanding of this post will make you $$$$$$.

PLP

[ChinMusic]

I promised I would elaborate on how to calculate the win probability from the Pinnacle line. Here it is...

Calculation works the easiest if you use the decimal line. Suppose you have V 2.00, H 1.926. First, figure out the juice that is built into the line. 1/2.00 + 1/1.926 = 1.0192

Now multiply each side by 1.0192 to get V 2.0384, H 1.963. This is the "fair" line, or no-juice line.

Win probability is simply the reciprocal of those numbers. So, visitor win prob = 1/2.0384 = 49% and home win prob = 1/1.963 = 51%.

Try a few for yourself and see if they match up to PLP's win probabilities. If it doesn't match up, could be a timing issue. His site updates every 15 minutes but the Pinnacle lines are updating all the time.

[McGuire72]

Chin

For example, since they have introduced baseball point spread, I have a question. I have seen where a team to win is a shaded edge or a positive edge o the proline side. However, at the same time, it is closer to an edge on the other team in terms of the point spread. I am not sure if it has or will ever be an edge both ways. But for sake of argument, there is an edge on team a via proline, but edge on team b via point spread.

How does one play it?

Why not play both? If both sides present an edge, what does it matter? Even negating the fact that one side was a PL bet and the other was a PS bet... If the PL moneyline on V presents a +15% edge, and the moneyline H presents a +13% edge, just key both sides on two sets of tickets and you're going to make money in the end.

[McGuire72]

Well obviously a -.5 point spread....the edge is always who's favoured. The proline moneyline if you will are the edges one should pay more attention too. Gl

Have to say I disagree here. The 20x and 75x payouts on 5 and 7 game PS tickets can get really juicy with just a few good edges.

[Arch]

Great Posts guys, Not much else to add that hasn't already been stated but I wanted to post this link for a more visual introduction to what Chin and others are getting at, Great vid for those new to all these http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gH-aCkLkpOI BTW the lad in the vid is well known and worked for pinny many yrs ago His name is Elihu Feustel

[ProlinePlayer]

Great Posts guys, Not much else to add that hasn't already been stated but I wanted to post this link for a more visual introduction to what Chin and others are getting at, Great vid for those new to all these http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gH-aCkLkpOI BTW the lad in the vid is well known and worked for pinny many yrs ago His name is Elihu Feustel

Nice video.

I don't know if any of you remember this as it was many years back. Pinnacle used to send out (email) a monthly newsletter type of thing called the Pinnacle Pulse. And this contained advice on how to make your picks etc. The usual sort of thing except with one big difference. The advice given was extremely sharp. We're talking about explaining correlated parlays and how to find/calculate their ev, this sort of stuff. Just goes to show the self-confidence that this operation has to put out articles like this. It wasn't known at the time but apparently the writer for this was also Justin7.

PLP