Edges on games

[TheSix]

I was wondering if someone could explain how to calculate edges on single games (including props) outside of proline (sportsbooks, casino niagara, etc). I am new to all of this and am having a bit of trouble understanding how to do this. It would be a great help, thank you.

[richhhh]

Good to practice this stuff so ill awnser on my phone while camping .

Efficient line(Pinnacle): Wsh 2.02 Cin 1.91

Rec Book Wsh 1.75 Cin 2.23

Above we have two lines from two separate books, Pinny is the smart line. We know this because they take very large bets and do not ban customers for winning. There lines represent true win probability's or at the least close to it and will change and adjust as information changes. The rec book line is different, they do not take large bets and will ban customers who routinely bet lines when odds are higher then pinnys.
Its easy to tell betting cin at the rec book is a edge just from looking at it. But here is how to calculate the edge

First we need cin win% which we will gather from the pinnacle line. (1/1.91)/((1/ 1.91)+(1/2.02))=0.514 (1/cin odds)/((1/cin odds)+(1/wsh odds))
Now we take are cin win% and apply it to the rec book odds (.514)*(2.23-1)-(1-.514)*1 = .1462 ( win%)*(odds -1)-(loss percentage)*1

Betting cin at the rec give us a edge of 14.62%

Betting wsh at the rec book is -14.95% (1/2.02)/((1/2.02)+(1.91))=.486 (.486 )* (1.75-1)-(1-.486)*1= -14.95

[bangminton]

Pinnacle also has excellent betting articles. They are very easy to follow with clear examples. Suggest you have a look when you have time, if you wish to dabble in online plays

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/bettin ... ge-betting

[TheSix]

Good to practice this stuff so ill awnser on my phone while camping .

Efficient line(Pinnacle): Wsh 2.02 Cin 1.91

Rec Book Wsh 1.75 Cin 2.23

Above we have two lines from two separate books, Pinny is the smart line. We know this because they take very large bets and do not ban customers for winning. There lines represent true win probability's or at the least close to it and will change and adjust as information changes. The rec book line is different, they do not take large bets and will ban customers who routinely bet lines when odds are higher then pinnys.
Its easy to tell betting cin at the rec book is a edge just from looking at it. But here is how to calculate the edge

First we need cin win% which we will gather from the pinnacle line. (1/1.91)/((1/ 1.91)+(1/2.02))=0.514 (1/cin odds)/((1/cin odds)+(1/wsh odds))
Now we take are cin win% and apply it to the rec book odds (.514)*(2.23-1)-(1-.514)*1 = .1462 ( win%)*(odds -1)-(loss percentage)*1

Betting cin at the rec give us a edge of 14.62%

Betting wsh at the rec book is -14.95% (1/2.02)/((1/2.02)+(1.91))=.486 (.486 )* (1.75-1)-(1-.486)*1= -14.95

Thank you Richhhh, this explained a lot and cleared up my concerns. I guess my next question would be to ask what online books have shown to give you the best edges when compared to pinnacle (if you don't mind answering that)? Have fun camping.

[TheSix]

Pinnacle also has excellent betting articles. They are very easy to follow with clear examples. Suggest you have a look when you have time, if you wish to dabble in online plays

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/bettin ... ge-betting

Thanks bangminton, I will definitely give this a look.

[TheSix]

Sorry, but I have another questions as well. As Richhhh explained how to calculate edges on lines by using pinnacle odds and comparing them to other books. Is there a way of importing odds from pinnacle and other books straight to excel, instead of typing them every time?

[richhhh]

Sportsinteraction is the best in regards to betting exactly like we do with proline with above formula. They also give prop edges.
bodog is the best with prop edges, they also have moneyline edges but extreme like sia

These sites will not you beat them forever, your limets will get cut.

If your a small level or mid level player like myself then my advice is spend time with props. All sites that offer props or offer something new for special events will have bad lines. This includes pinny/greek/bookmaker/sbobet/betfair etc.. With props tho you cannot use the above formula like we do with money lines on major sports.

Last year around this time The Greek offered a new prop for every major league baseball game. The prop was simply which pitcher would have more strikeouts in the first inning. Everytime there was a elite pitcher with high strikeout rate the opposing pitcher odds would be 3.5/5 which would make sense if the prop was for the whole game but considering the prop was only for the first inning it was +ev to bet the opposing pitcher. I was getting maybe 4/5 bets a day with at least 20% roi on each and this went on for months. The max bet was 200$ US dollars per bet and I was averaging 100$/200$ a day for months. Pretty good gig for a minute of work a day. Eventually this dried up as others caught wind. The Greek would open the lines and I would try to wager immediately but i would get the message the lines have changed(other betting quickly as well moving the lines). Few weeks after this was happening daily the Greek remove the prop entirely. Its annoying when this happens but all good things like this are temporary even with professional sites like the Greek. I think the only reason this one lasted so long because there was no way to arb this bet as noone else offered anything close keeping the strictly arbitrage bettors away.

[bangminton]

Sorry, but I have another questions as well. As Richhhh explained how to calculate edges on lines by using pinnacle odds and comparing them to other books. Is there a way of importing odds from pinnacle and other books straight to excel, instead of typing them every time?

Have a look at this one, Six.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/h ... eague.html

It's a little bit more technical than your typical Excel Web data download function but it should do what you are looking for.

[TheSix]

Sorry, but I have another questions as well. As Richhhh explained how to calculate edges on lines by using pinnacle odds and comparing them to other books. Is there a way of importing odds from pinnacle and other books straight to excel, instead of typing them every time?

Have a look at this one, Six.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/h ... eague.html

It's a little bit more technical than your typical Excel Web data download function but it should do what you are looking for.

Thanks so much, really helps. But I was looking into the file and it does not appear to show the odds for baseball. Is this true or am I over looking something.

[bangminton]

Sorry, but I have another questions as well. As Richhhh explained how to calculate edges on lines by using pinnacle odds and comparing them to other books. Is there a way of importing odds from pinnacle and other books straight to excel, instead of typing them every time?

Have a look at this one, Six.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/h ... eague.html

It's a little bit more technical than your typical Excel Web data download function but it should do what you are looking for.

Thanks so much, really helps. But I was looking into the file and it does not appear to show the odds for baseball. Is this true or am I over looking something.

Six, make sure you download the latest version (see the post on August 12, 2014). It has all kinds of leagues there, including baseball and MLB.