MLB- Win probability

[pedge]

Found this site : http://www.fangraphs.com/livescoreboard.aspx

(Click on today's date to reveal the win probability)


Here is their article that describes the above website: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-game-odds/


"The Game Odds is our model’s prediction about the chance each team has to win the game based on the quality of the starting pitchers and lineups, plus home field advantage. The numbers are probably a little overly precise, but they are a fun tool for you to get a sense of which team is stronger according to their projected talent level."

Opinions?

[richhhh]

I took a quick peek, I noticed blue jays estimated win% is 52.5% via website and pinnys estimate win% is 59.3%. If the jays line at pinny closes near 52% Ill take a another glace

[pedge]

bump. i noticed that once the lineups are revealed of a team, they seem to be nearly equal to pinnys line.

Doing some googling to see if someone backtested these win probabilities... i don't know if they include last minute player injuries..

edit: updated the page links.


in order to backtest, you can see the win probability of any game on any day by modifying the following url: http://www.fangraphs.com/livescoreboard ... 2016-04-25