Do I have an edge here

[neilsy25]

Hello

Just found this site and I love it. Have already learned a lot. From what I have read I have calculated my edge on Pro-line 4 game parlays, and what I need to beat them.

If I find 4 games with a 58% chance of winning ,then my odds of winning this parlay = .58*.58*.58*.58 = 11.31%
** note, although a 4 gamer pays 10-1 , I have adjusted the payout to be 9-1 . I arrive at this number since I know that in baseball a favorite wins by exactly 1 run about 19% of the time,resulting in a reduced parlay ...therefore 81% if the time I win 10X , or 81 ...19% of the time I win 5* or 9, thus an average 9X
** also note that due to the advice on this site I am boxing a 5th game, in the event that my parlay has 2 pushes/rain outs and is reduced to a dreaded 2 gamer (2-1)

So based on this , I calculate my edge to be 9*.1131-1 = 1.8% edge

so for every $100 wagered I should expect to win 101.80 ..

the same example as above , but where I find 4 teams with a 59% chance of winning increase my edge to 9% .. and so on

Is this correct or haven I misunderstood something ?

[ProlinePlayer]

Looks ok except for one thing.
You've adjusted the payout for the potential push but you may also need to do the same for the win probability.

For example if you've taken the numbers off my site then the 58% is for win/loss while ignoring the possibility of a push.
The real probabilities may be more like
Win 48.5
Loss 32.5
Push 19

So if you're going to adjust the payouts down for the push you should also fix the probability to reflect a result of win or push
So the probability of hitting the 4 teamer would be .58 * .58 * .58 * .675

PLP