NHL Player H2H Props

The math of winning at proline. Edge play, bankroll management and related issues.
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thincutting
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Joined: Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:38 am

NHL Player H2H Props

Post by thincutting » Wed Oct 23, 2013 11:24 am

Hi,

I was wondering if you could divulge what you use as the baseline for point %s for your player props calculations. I'm currently using projections from Puck Prospectus, but I've heard of using last year's %s with a mix of this year's results. I'm getting numbers for the Spezza WC prop that are 5-6% pts off, which isn't a lot, but certainly makes a huge difference whether you bet a side or not.

Thanks,
Lou

ProlinePlayer
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Re: NHL Player H2H Props

Post by ProlinePlayer » Sat Oct 26, 2013 5:34 am

thincutting wrote:Hi,

I was wondering if you could divulge what you use as the baseline for point %s for your player props calculations. I'm currently using projections from Puck Prospectus, but I've heard of using last year's %s with a mix of this year's results. I'm getting numbers for the Spezza WC prop that are 5-6% pts off, which isn't a lot, but certainly makes a huge difference whether you bet a side or not.

Thanks,
Lou

The program uses results from the last 80 games played. The games are however assigned different weights depending on things like last year or current year.

I don't know if you're aware of the discussions that were held on bigtip years back as to how to handicap these, but a lot of the methods used by the program are the result of those.

PLP

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