Hedge advice

[leoj]

Thats not really a hedge and I would never do something like that where you can lose both sides.

You know I can't really disagree with this because it pretty much covers what I would do. But that being said I'm not sure it's right.

Reminds me of something I was reading a couple of months back (if I remember where I'll fill it in later), the writer was discussing arb situations, middles, hedging and stuff like that. He pointed out that many sharp players tend to miss very favourable situations because a reluctance to middle themselves. For example betting the dog +2.5 and the favourite -3.5 could, depending on the prices (money line) connected to the lines, be a position where both sides are +ev. He states that a lot of potential is missed by players not taking advantage of these spots.

I'd be curious to know what the math is in these situations. For example in the above, holding a position on Carolina -3.5, could it be correct to play SanFran at +2.5 as a hedge?
Maybe Matty or one of our other math experts can answer that question?

PLP

Even if the math did justify it, I don't like being in the position of possibly getting polish middled (or eating the shit sandwich as i call it) and would just let it ride.

One way to approach this for those who have pinnacle is use the live betting to hedge out, although you may not get the chance if SF gets in front early and stays there.

[bangminton]

Thanks for the detailed explanations, Matty.

I went through your steps and used trial and error (not very familiar with Excel Solver yet) and it looks like not hedging anything (using X = 0) on SF PK +104 (as of 10:09) will yield the maximum value for the weighted average so I will let it ride.

I used starting bankroll of $10K with $500 waiting on Carolina by 4.

Thanks again.

[MattyKGB]

I'm not surprised. Kelly really penalizes anything that adds downside risk.

[ChinMusic]

When it comes to the math, always trust Matty.

I don't mind getting middled once in a while, if the chance is small. But with NFL football the 3 point is too risky. Your best plan is to look for an in-game line or a 2nd half line.

[ProlinePlayer]

When it comes to the math, always trust Matty.

agree with that!!

I also am not surprised. But nice to have what we all would have done here is confirmed by the math.

PLP