Shots on goal - some thoughts

[ProlinePlayer]

I'm going to start another thread similar to the earlier one on faceoffs. This time I'm going to look at team shots on goal and how to predict them.

Of course the OLG does not actually offer this prop, but it seems to me that this is a logical starting point which will later lead to an analysis of player SOGs and team saves.

I start by throwing out some stats I've run off. And I'll continue to add to the thread over time. Anyone who has any insights they want to contribute please do.

PLP

[ProlinePlayer]

We'll start with the basics

The below is along the same lines as the faceoffs stuff done earlier

NHL PROPS - ShotsOnGoal Results Report 02/08/2014 Years : 2006 -> 2013 Total Games : 8952 ----- Results (Average) ----- Shots Goals %ScEff Visit ShotsOnGoal Per Game : 28.86 2.60 9.00% Home ShotsOnGoal Per Game : 30.82 2.90 9.42% ----- Results (Median) ----- Visit ShotsOnGoal Per Game 24.5 25.5 26.5 27.5 28.5 29.5 30.5 31.5 32.5 ----------|----------|----------|----------|--------------|--------------|----------|----------|----------|---------- 74.47% 68.80% 62.75% 56.76% 50.32% 44.33% 37.97% 32.57% 27.18% Home ShotsOnGoal Per Game 26.5 27.5 28.5 29.5 30.5 31.5 32.5 33.5 34.5 ----------|----------|----------|----------|--------------|--------------|----------|----------|----------|---------- 72.46% 67.55% 61.73% 55.76% 50.13% 44.09% 38.45% 33.31% 28.24%

PLP

[bangminton]

Thanks for starting the thread, PLP.

Just a quick note we have seen Team Shots on Goal offered before, by my count we have seen this 7 times on Props cards so far.

[bangminton]

Yahoo Sports has team shots on goal split by home/road

Here's an interesting look at *Home Recording Bias: Shots on Goal*. I know there's a bias for hits when it comes to certain teams/arenas but not sure how prevalent it is for team shots on goal.

http://objectivenhl.blogspot.ca/2009/03 ... -some.html

Just some food for thought.

[rc99ar]

Instinctively i thought individual player SOG's should follow a poisson dist. Is this not the case?

[MattyKGB]

Instinctively i thought individual player SOG's should follow a poisson dist. Is this not the case?

Yes, I would think so. But Poisson alone doesn't get us to the answer - we also need a method for estimating the mean of the Poisson distribution for shots (or saves).

[bangminton]

Bit of a read but correlation between puck possession % and team shots on goal?

http://www.leftwinglock.com/shot-metric ... etrics.pdf

[richhhh]

Bit of a read but correlation between puck possession % and team shots on goal?

http://www.leftwinglock.com/shot-metric ... etrics.pdf

Would hope they would correlate seeing how they calculate puck possession by shots on goal