PLP,
I have been meaning to ask this for awhile now..What does the 'Adj$' mean in the Proline Parlay Maker and how do you use it in conjunction with the program?
Thanks again,
mlansky
Proline Parlay Maker Question
-
ProlinePlayer
- Site Admin
- Posts: 2076
- Joined: Sun Mar 31, 2013 6:33 am
Re: Proline Parlay Maker Question
sorry to take so long on this one
The Adj$ in the plays panel allows you to alter the weight given to the play when the parlay list determines the bet sizes.
The default value when left blank is set to 1.0. Increasing of decreasing this value will alter increase/decrease the bet size of all parlays including this play.
As an example ...
Say your list includes 35H. Make the parlay list. Note the $$ bet on the parlays. Now set the Adj$ value to .5. Make the parlay list. You'll see that the amount wagered on any parlay containing 35H is now cut in half. btw - You can view the result of this easily by changing the tab in the Print panel to 'Summary'. You'll see how changing the Adj$ value affects the total amount wagered on the play.
The above only works if the 'Bet Sizes Options' is set to 'Kelly Criterion (PLP Method)' (recommended) or 'Kelly Criterion (Not Adjusted)'.
A practical use of this feature could be for a game that has been included on the Plays List over several days. You could be now in a position where you already have tickets which include this play and feel that purchasing more made leave you over invested in the game. On the other hand you don't want to exclude the game as it makes a filler for other potential parlays. Reducing the value here could be a compromise position.
PLP
The Adj$ in the plays panel allows you to alter the weight given to the play when the parlay list determines the bet sizes.
The default value when left blank is set to 1.0. Increasing of decreasing this value will alter increase/decrease the bet size of all parlays including this play.
As an example ...
Say your list includes 35H. Make the parlay list. Note the $$ bet on the parlays. Now set the Adj$ value to .5. Make the parlay list. You'll see that the amount wagered on any parlay containing 35H is now cut in half. btw - You can view the result of this easily by changing the tab in the Print panel to 'Summary'. You'll see how changing the Adj$ value affects the total amount wagered on the play.
The above only works if the 'Bet Sizes Options' is set to 'Kelly Criterion (PLP Method)' (recommended) or 'Kelly Criterion (Not Adjusted)'.
A practical use of this feature could be for a game that has been included on the Plays List over several days. You could be now in a position where you already have tickets which include this play and feel that purchasing more made leave you over invested in the game. On the other hand you don't want to exclude the game as it makes a filler for other potential parlays. Reducing the value here could be a compromise position.
PLP
Re: Proline Parlay Maker Question
PLP,ProlinePlayer wrote:sorry to take so long on this one
The Adj$ in the plays panel allows you to alter the weight given to the play when the parlay list determines the bet sizes.
The default value when left blank is set to 1.0. Increasing of decreasing this value will alter increase/decrease the bet size of all parlays including this play.
As an example ...
Say your list includes 35H. Make the parlay list. Note the $$ bet on the parlays. Now set the Adj$ value to .5. Make the parlay list. You'll see that the amount wagered on any parlay containing 35H is now cut in half. btw - You can view the result of this easily by changing the tab in the Print panel to 'Summary'. You'll see how changing the Adj$ value affects the total amount wagered on the play.
The above only works if the 'Bet Sizes Options' is set to 'Kelly Criterion (PLP Method)' (recommended) or 'Kelly Criterion (Not Adjusted)'.
A practical use of this feature could be for a game that has been included on the Plays List over several days. You could be now in a position where you already have tickets which include this play and feel that purchasing more made leave you over invested in the game. On the other hand you don't want to exclude the game as it makes a filler for other potential parlays. Reducing the value here could be a compromise position.
PLP
No worries, thank you for the response. I just wasn't sure what the Adj$ was used for in regards to the Proline Parlay Maker. Thank you for clarifying, but I'm still unclear on this part here when you said " You can view the result of this easily by changing the tab in the Print panel to 'Summary'. You'll see how changing the Adj$ value affects the total amount wagered on the play." Sorry, but I can't figure out what you mean by that.
I see what you're saying about the practical use of this feature except every time I use the Proline Parlay Maker, I never use the Plays List over several days. Such as, I never have a game that's pending a day or days down the road. It's always just a day by day or day to day thing since I'm just following the edges (if any) from your site on a day to day basis.
Thanks again for your response.
Kind regards,
mlansky
Re: Proline Parlay Maker Question
PLP,
The Proline Parlay Maker question that I asked you a couple of days ago got me thinking about the email that I sent you awhile back (late January of this year) with questions that I composed and wanted to ask you. I'm not sure if you got the email or not, but I thought that I'd post some the questions from email here (if you don't mind) for every one to see. Some of these questions may come across as "dumb" even though I was always told there is no such thing as a dumb question. Anyways, I figured the answers to these questions by this VERY informative board may be beneficial to someone new on here that might have been thinking along the same lines as me this past January. So here goes:
I started writing out some questions that I wanted to ask you on Thursday January 24, 2013. Then I thought of some more questions that I wanted to ask you, so I tried to write everything out before I sent them do you. I have some questions about your ‘Proline Parlay Maker’ and some other questions as well that I hope you don’t mind answering. I’ll label them numerically to make it easier.
1. This may be a dumb question, but how do you figure out the ‘Win Probabilities’ and ‘Player Edge’ on your site just based off of the point spread of a particular game. Is there a formula to figure this out? I’m sure you have a program/database that figures all of this out for you, but I would like to know how to do it manually I guess sort of for peace of mind..ya know (if that’s at all possible). As an example..game #4 for Thursday January 24, 2013. How would you figure out the ‘Win Probability’ for the VISITOR, TIE & HOME and the ‘Player Edge’ for the VISITOR, TIE & HOME for this game? I want to fully understand the math and want to be able to do it on my own.
2. How would the Kelly Criterion work when you're playing both Proline & Point Spread on the same day? Would you just make the Kelly from the same bankroll amount that you started with on that day? I’m just not clear on how to set up your bankroll when playing both Pro-Line & Point Spread plays on the same day. There were some nice PS edges on Wednesday January 23, 2013, so I tried playing them using the ‘Proline Parlay Maker’, but it never adjusted my bet size using the Kelly with regards to my bankroll. Every wager for every combo was $10 and the program generated 12 combos, so $120. Now I don’t think that was the correct bet size per combo. Am I doing something wrong in regards to setting up my rotations/combos?
3. I have been thinking about this and I’m still unsure which scenario is the proper long-term approach to take. Do you suggest just playing 3 games when playing Pro-Line or do you use 4 or even 5 games per ticket at times? Or rather, does it depend on the amount of edges that are on the board for that day? Also, do you have a minimum ‘win probability per combo’ set that you won’t go lower than? As an example..for Thursday January 31, 2013 under ‘Parlay Size By Plays’ in the ‘Proline Parlay Maker’ I set it to 3 teams & 4 teams with a minimum player edge of 10%. The ‘Proline Parlay Maker’ generated 98 different parlays using 14 teams while wagering $196 in total where each combo played at $2 each. Some of the 4 game parlays only had a 2% win probability. Should I still play those combos? Would you recommend playing every combo that the ‘Proline Parlay Maker’ generated or just the top 20 player edge plays? Finally, do you always set your ‘Minimum Player Edge’ to 10% or does it depend on the edges that are available for that specific day? Such as if there was a smaller edged game list, would you maybe just reduce the ‘Minimum Player Edge’ to 5% to allow for more combos/parlays? I know no matter what though, you always want to play the top ‘Player Edge’ combos first and foremost.
4. Do you keep track of all your wagers on Excel, or just keep track of your bankroll figures/fluctuations? I have just been keeping track of my bankroll figures using Microsoft Word for now, but I was wondering what approach you use?
5. I found an old post of Poindexter’s that I had saved in Word from years back actually from 2005. Is the program that he is referring to similar to the ‘Proline Parlay Maker’ or does he use a different program, etc? I remember you saying something about when he played, he also played games with negative edges as well, but incorporated them with +EV plays to make the parlay a +EV play. Is that true? I even notice with his combos from Jan.6/05 that he played tickets with 4 and even 5 games whereas when I’m playing I just use 3 games per ticket (except for Thursday January 31, 2013 which was when I used 3 & 4 game combos/parlays). I think this was posted in the ‘Everyedge’ forum I’ll post what was said:
Poindexter's top 100 combos for Jan 6/05
Hi all,
I've been quite busy for quite some time but I finally found the time to get my Proline computer program working properly. I now merely click on an icon and it automatically downloads data and odds from various websites, does many calculations and prints out the list of combos from best to worst.
Depending on the OLGC's current (and always moving, depending on my activity)
liability limits, some of these combos may or may not max out.
Here are Thursdays top 100 combos sorted from best to worst. The sorting is based on both edge and odds, where bigger edges generally rate better but lower odds are also generally favoured.
(the edge column is the calculated return per 1 unit bet)
31h 33v 34v ,6.29,1.47
31h+ 33v 34v ,7.74,1.49
28h 31h 33v 34v ,8.81,1.44
28h 31h+ 33v 34v ,10.84,1.46
37h 31h 33v 34v ,11.95,1.46
37h 31h+ 33v 34v ,14.71,1.47
28h 33v 34v ,6.78,1.37
31h 33v 34v 36v ,10.07,1.40
31h+ 33v 34v 36v ,12.39,1.42
37h 33v 34v ,9.20,1.38
31h 32t 33v 34v ,15.73,1.43
40h+ 31h 33v 34v ,13.84,1.42
40h 31h 33v 34v ,10.07,1.38
31h+ 32t 33v 34v ,19.36,1.45
40h+ 31h+ 33v 34v ,17.04,1.43
40h 31h+ 33v 34v ,12.39,1.39
37h 28h 31h 33v 34v ,16.74,1.42
37h 28h 31h+ 33v 34v ,20.60,1.44
28h+ 31h 33v 34v ,11.33,1.38
28h+ 31h+ 33v 34v ,13.94,1.39
38h 31h 33v 34v ,9.44,1.36
38h 31h+ 33v 34v ,11.62,1.37
37h+ 31h 33v 34v ,15.73,1.39
33v 34v 36v ,7.74,1.33
11v 31h 33v 34v ,13.84,1.37
38u 31h 33v 34v ,11.33,1.36
32t 33v 34v ,12.10,1.36
38u 31h+ 33v 34v ,13.94,1.37
37h+ 31h+ 33v 34v ,19.36,1.40
11v 31h+ 33v 34v ,17.04,1.39
28h 31h 33v 34v 36v ,14.09,1.37
40h+ 33v 34v ,10.65,1.34
28h 31h+ 33v 34v 36v ,17.35,1.38
38h+ 31h 33v 34v ,12.58,1.36
3t 31h 33v 34v ,17.62,1.38
7h 31h+ 33v 34v ,9.29,1.33
38h+ 31h+ 33v 34v ,15.49,1.37
7h 31h 33v 34v ,7.55,1.32
31h 33v 34v 35t ,18.88,1.39
3t 31h+ 33v 34v ,21.68,1.40
37h 28h 33v 34v ,12.87,1.35
28h 31h 32t 33v 34v ,22.02,1.40
37h 31h 33v 34v 36v ,19.13,1.38
39h 31h+ 33v 34v ,10.07,1.33
39h 31h 33v 34v ,8.18,1.32
31h+ 33v 34v 35t ,23.23,1.40
40h+ 28h 31h 33v 34v ,19.38,1.38
6t 31h 33v 34v ,20.13,1.39
37h 31h+ 33v 34v 36v ,23.54,1.40
28h 31h+ 32t 33v 34v ,27.10,1.41
40h+ 28h 31h+ 33v 34v ,23.85,1.40
6t 31h+ 33v 34v ,24.78,1.40
9h 31h 33v 34v ,13.84,1.35
4h 31h+ 33v 34v ,13.16,1.35
4h 31h 33v 34v ,10.70,1.33
9h 31h+ 33v 34v ,17.04,1.36
40h 33v 34v ,7.74,1.31
40h 28h 31h 33v 34v ,14.09,1.35
37h 31h 32t 33v 34v ,29.89,1.42
40h 28h 31h+ 33v 34v ,17.35,1.36
37h 40h+ 31h 33v 34v ,26.30,1.40
37h 31h+ 32t 33v 34v ,36.78,1.43
37h 40h+ 31h+ 33v 34v ,32.37,1.41
37h 40h 31h 33v 34v ,19.13,1.36
4t 31h 33v 34v ,19.51,1.36
5t 31h 33v 34v ,19.51,1.36
37h 40h 31h+ 33v 34v ,23.54,1.38
28h+ 33v 34v ,8.71,1.31
4t 31h+ 33v 34v ,24.01,1.38
5t 31h+ 33v 34v ,24.01,1.38
37u 31h+ 33v 34v ,13.94,1.34
2h 31h 33v 34v ,17.62,1.35
37u 31h 33v 34v ,11.33,1.32
2h 31h+ 33v 34v ,21.68,1.37
37h 28h+ 31h 33v 34v ,21.52,1.36
37h 31h+ 34v ,6.69,1.29
38h 28h 31h+ 33v 34v ,16.26,1.34
38h 28h 31h 33v 34v ,13.21,1.33
37h 28h+ 31h+ 33v 34v ,26.48,1.38
28h 31h+ 34v ,4.93,1.27
37h+ 33v 34v ,12.10,1.32
37h 38h 31h 33v 34v ,17.93,1.34
37h 38h 31h+ 33v 34v ,22.07,1.36
37h+ 28h 31h 33v 34v ,22.02,1.35
38h 33v 34v ,7.26,1.29
37h+ 28h 31h+ 33v 34v ,27.10,1.37
37h 31h 34v ,5.43,1.28
11v 28h 31h 33v 34v ,19.38,1.34
11v 28h 31h+ 33v 34v ,23.85,1.36
31h 32t 33v 34v 36v ,25.17,1.36
11v 33v 34v ,10.65,1.30
38u 28h 31h+ 33v 34v ,19.51,1.34
38u 28h 31h 33v 34v ,15.86,1.33
31h+ 32t 33v 34v 36v ,30.98,1.38
28h 32t 33v 34v ,16.94,1.33
3t 33v 34v ,13.55,1.31
40h+ 31h 33v 34v 36v ,22.15,1.35
11v 37h 31h 33v 34v ,26.30,1.36
3t 28h 31h 33v 34v ,24.66,1.35
40h+ 31h+ 33v 34v 36v ,27.26,1.36
Combos 81-90 worked so I played them twice.
WELCOME BACK POINDEXTER!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sorry for all the material and all the questions! I hope you didn’t mind and I hope that my questions made sense. Like I said, I have been pondering all of this stuff for a while now. I’m just really fascinated by all of this and want to learn all that I can from someone who definitely knows what they are doing. I want to be able to wager on sports using an approach/system that I can stick to no matter what that in the long term will show and produce results. I think that I have found this with playing edges. I really enjoyed writing to you and in a sense it was a relief to get these questions off of my chest and onto paper. I’ll probably have some more questions in the future which I’m sure you’re probably already dreading since I’ve already asked so much..lol. Thanks again for the time you took in reading my email. I greatly look forward to your reply.
With sincerest regards,
mlansky
PS. I had a fairly nice sized win compared to my bankroll on Thursday January 31, 2013. I made $196 in wagers using 14 games or plays in total and the ‘Proline Parlay Maker’ generated 98 different parlays with a minimum player edge of 10% per parlay or ticket. So out of those 98 parlays, 82 of them lost while 16 of them won or came in. December 4, 2013 starting Bankroll: $2500. Thursday January 31, 2013 Bankroll: $3892.77. That’s a 64.22% increase in almost 3 months. Also, I just keep track of my bankroll using Microsoft Word.
The Proline Parlay Maker question that I asked you a couple of days ago got me thinking about the email that I sent you awhile back (late January of this year) with questions that I composed and wanted to ask you. I'm not sure if you got the email or not, but I thought that I'd post some the questions from email here (if you don't mind) for every one to see. Some of these questions may come across as "dumb" even though I was always told there is no such thing as a dumb question. Anyways, I figured the answers to these questions by this VERY informative board may be beneficial to someone new on here that might have been thinking along the same lines as me this past January. So here goes:
I started writing out some questions that I wanted to ask you on Thursday January 24, 2013. Then I thought of some more questions that I wanted to ask you, so I tried to write everything out before I sent them do you. I have some questions about your ‘Proline Parlay Maker’ and some other questions as well that I hope you don’t mind answering. I’ll label them numerically to make it easier.
1. This may be a dumb question, but how do you figure out the ‘Win Probabilities’ and ‘Player Edge’ on your site just based off of the point spread of a particular game. Is there a formula to figure this out? I’m sure you have a program/database that figures all of this out for you, but I would like to know how to do it manually I guess sort of for peace of mind..ya know (if that’s at all possible). As an example..game #4 for Thursday January 24, 2013. How would you figure out the ‘Win Probability’ for the VISITOR, TIE & HOME and the ‘Player Edge’ for the VISITOR, TIE & HOME for this game? I want to fully understand the math and want to be able to do it on my own.
2. How would the Kelly Criterion work when you're playing both Proline & Point Spread on the same day? Would you just make the Kelly from the same bankroll amount that you started with on that day? I’m just not clear on how to set up your bankroll when playing both Pro-Line & Point Spread plays on the same day. There were some nice PS edges on Wednesday January 23, 2013, so I tried playing them using the ‘Proline Parlay Maker’, but it never adjusted my bet size using the Kelly with regards to my bankroll. Every wager for every combo was $10 and the program generated 12 combos, so $120. Now I don’t think that was the correct bet size per combo. Am I doing something wrong in regards to setting up my rotations/combos?
3. I have been thinking about this and I’m still unsure which scenario is the proper long-term approach to take. Do you suggest just playing 3 games when playing Pro-Line or do you use 4 or even 5 games per ticket at times? Or rather, does it depend on the amount of edges that are on the board for that day? Also, do you have a minimum ‘win probability per combo’ set that you won’t go lower than? As an example..for Thursday January 31, 2013 under ‘Parlay Size By Plays’ in the ‘Proline Parlay Maker’ I set it to 3 teams & 4 teams with a minimum player edge of 10%. The ‘Proline Parlay Maker’ generated 98 different parlays using 14 teams while wagering $196 in total where each combo played at $2 each. Some of the 4 game parlays only had a 2% win probability. Should I still play those combos? Would you recommend playing every combo that the ‘Proline Parlay Maker’ generated or just the top 20 player edge plays? Finally, do you always set your ‘Minimum Player Edge’ to 10% or does it depend on the edges that are available for that specific day? Such as if there was a smaller edged game list, would you maybe just reduce the ‘Minimum Player Edge’ to 5% to allow for more combos/parlays? I know no matter what though, you always want to play the top ‘Player Edge’ combos first and foremost.
4. Do you keep track of all your wagers on Excel, or just keep track of your bankroll figures/fluctuations? I have just been keeping track of my bankroll figures using Microsoft Word for now, but I was wondering what approach you use?
5. I found an old post of Poindexter’s that I had saved in Word from years back actually from 2005. Is the program that he is referring to similar to the ‘Proline Parlay Maker’ or does he use a different program, etc? I remember you saying something about when he played, he also played games with negative edges as well, but incorporated them with +EV plays to make the parlay a +EV play. Is that true? I even notice with his combos from Jan.6/05 that he played tickets with 4 and even 5 games whereas when I’m playing I just use 3 games per ticket (except for Thursday January 31, 2013 which was when I used 3 & 4 game combos/parlays). I think this was posted in the ‘Everyedge’ forum I’ll post what was said:
Poindexter's top 100 combos for Jan 6/05
Hi all,
I've been quite busy for quite some time but I finally found the time to get my Proline computer program working properly. I now merely click on an icon and it automatically downloads data and odds from various websites, does many calculations and prints out the list of combos from best to worst.
Depending on the OLGC's current (and always moving, depending on my activity)
liability limits, some of these combos may or may not max out.
Here are Thursdays top 100 combos sorted from best to worst. The sorting is based on both edge and odds, where bigger edges generally rate better but lower odds are also generally favoured.
(the edge column is the calculated return per 1 unit bet)
31h 33v 34v ,6.29,1.47
31h+ 33v 34v ,7.74,1.49
28h 31h 33v 34v ,8.81,1.44
28h 31h+ 33v 34v ,10.84,1.46
37h 31h 33v 34v ,11.95,1.46
37h 31h+ 33v 34v ,14.71,1.47
28h 33v 34v ,6.78,1.37
31h 33v 34v 36v ,10.07,1.40
31h+ 33v 34v 36v ,12.39,1.42
37h 33v 34v ,9.20,1.38
31h 32t 33v 34v ,15.73,1.43
40h+ 31h 33v 34v ,13.84,1.42
40h 31h 33v 34v ,10.07,1.38
31h+ 32t 33v 34v ,19.36,1.45
40h+ 31h+ 33v 34v ,17.04,1.43
40h 31h+ 33v 34v ,12.39,1.39
37h 28h 31h 33v 34v ,16.74,1.42
37h 28h 31h+ 33v 34v ,20.60,1.44
28h+ 31h 33v 34v ,11.33,1.38
28h+ 31h+ 33v 34v ,13.94,1.39
38h 31h 33v 34v ,9.44,1.36
38h 31h+ 33v 34v ,11.62,1.37
37h+ 31h 33v 34v ,15.73,1.39
33v 34v 36v ,7.74,1.33
11v 31h 33v 34v ,13.84,1.37
38u 31h 33v 34v ,11.33,1.36
32t 33v 34v ,12.10,1.36
38u 31h+ 33v 34v ,13.94,1.37
37h+ 31h+ 33v 34v ,19.36,1.40
11v 31h+ 33v 34v ,17.04,1.39
28h 31h 33v 34v 36v ,14.09,1.37
40h+ 33v 34v ,10.65,1.34
28h 31h+ 33v 34v 36v ,17.35,1.38
38h+ 31h 33v 34v ,12.58,1.36
3t 31h 33v 34v ,17.62,1.38
7h 31h+ 33v 34v ,9.29,1.33
38h+ 31h+ 33v 34v ,15.49,1.37
7h 31h 33v 34v ,7.55,1.32
31h 33v 34v 35t ,18.88,1.39
3t 31h+ 33v 34v ,21.68,1.40
37h 28h 33v 34v ,12.87,1.35
28h 31h 32t 33v 34v ,22.02,1.40
37h 31h 33v 34v 36v ,19.13,1.38
39h 31h+ 33v 34v ,10.07,1.33
39h 31h 33v 34v ,8.18,1.32
31h+ 33v 34v 35t ,23.23,1.40
40h+ 28h 31h 33v 34v ,19.38,1.38
6t 31h 33v 34v ,20.13,1.39
37h 31h+ 33v 34v 36v ,23.54,1.40
28h 31h+ 32t 33v 34v ,27.10,1.41
40h+ 28h 31h+ 33v 34v ,23.85,1.40
6t 31h+ 33v 34v ,24.78,1.40
9h 31h 33v 34v ,13.84,1.35
4h 31h+ 33v 34v ,13.16,1.35
4h 31h 33v 34v ,10.70,1.33
9h 31h+ 33v 34v ,17.04,1.36
40h 33v 34v ,7.74,1.31
40h 28h 31h 33v 34v ,14.09,1.35
37h 31h 32t 33v 34v ,29.89,1.42
40h 28h 31h+ 33v 34v ,17.35,1.36
37h 40h+ 31h 33v 34v ,26.30,1.40
37h 31h+ 32t 33v 34v ,36.78,1.43
37h 40h+ 31h+ 33v 34v ,32.37,1.41
37h 40h 31h 33v 34v ,19.13,1.36
4t 31h 33v 34v ,19.51,1.36
5t 31h 33v 34v ,19.51,1.36
37h 40h 31h+ 33v 34v ,23.54,1.38
28h+ 33v 34v ,8.71,1.31
4t 31h+ 33v 34v ,24.01,1.38
5t 31h+ 33v 34v ,24.01,1.38
37u 31h+ 33v 34v ,13.94,1.34
2h 31h 33v 34v ,17.62,1.35
37u 31h 33v 34v ,11.33,1.32
2h 31h+ 33v 34v ,21.68,1.37
37h 28h+ 31h 33v 34v ,21.52,1.36
37h 31h+ 34v ,6.69,1.29
38h 28h 31h+ 33v 34v ,16.26,1.34
38h 28h 31h 33v 34v ,13.21,1.33
37h 28h+ 31h+ 33v 34v ,26.48,1.38
28h 31h+ 34v ,4.93,1.27
37h+ 33v 34v ,12.10,1.32
37h 38h 31h 33v 34v ,17.93,1.34
37h 38h 31h+ 33v 34v ,22.07,1.36
37h+ 28h 31h 33v 34v ,22.02,1.35
38h 33v 34v ,7.26,1.29
37h+ 28h 31h+ 33v 34v ,27.10,1.37
37h 31h 34v ,5.43,1.28
11v 28h 31h 33v 34v ,19.38,1.34
11v 28h 31h+ 33v 34v ,23.85,1.36
31h 32t 33v 34v 36v ,25.17,1.36
11v 33v 34v ,10.65,1.30
38u 28h 31h+ 33v 34v ,19.51,1.34
38u 28h 31h 33v 34v ,15.86,1.33
31h+ 32t 33v 34v 36v ,30.98,1.38
28h 32t 33v 34v ,16.94,1.33
3t 33v 34v ,13.55,1.31
40h+ 31h 33v 34v 36v ,22.15,1.35
11v 37h 31h 33v 34v ,26.30,1.36
3t 28h 31h 33v 34v ,24.66,1.35
40h+ 31h+ 33v 34v 36v ,27.26,1.36
Combos 81-90 worked so I played them twice.
WELCOME BACK POINDEXTER!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sorry for all the material and all the questions! I hope you didn’t mind and I hope that my questions made sense. Like I said, I have been pondering all of this stuff for a while now. I’m just really fascinated by all of this and want to learn all that I can from someone who definitely knows what they are doing. I want to be able to wager on sports using an approach/system that I can stick to no matter what that in the long term will show and produce results. I think that I have found this with playing edges. I really enjoyed writing to you and in a sense it was a relief to get these questions off of my chest and onto paper. I’ll probably have some more questions in the future which I’m sure you’re probably already dreading since I’ve already asked so much..lol. Thanks again for the time you took in reading my email. I greatly look forward to your reply.
With sincerest regards,
mlansky
PS. I had a fairly nice sized win compared to my bankroll on Thursday January 31, 2013. I made $196 in wagers using 14 games or plays in total and the ‘Proline Parlay Maker’ generated 98 different parlays with a minimum player edge of 10% per parlay or ticket. So out of those 98 parlays, 82 of them lost while 16 of them won or came in. December 4, 2013 starting Bankroll: $2500. Thursday January 31, 2013 Bankroll: $3892.77. That’s a 64.22% increase in almost 3 months. Also, I just keep track of my bankroll using Microsoft Word.
-
ProlinePlayer
- Site Admin
- Posts: 2076
- Joined: Sun Mar 31, 2013 6:33 am
Re: Proline Parlay Maker Question
Answering all of these is a bit of work so if anyone else wants to hop in feel free.mlansky wrote: 1. This may be a dumb question, but how do you figure out the ‘Win Probabilities’ and ‘Player Edge’ on your site just based off of the point spread of a particular game. Is there a formula to figure this out? I’m sure you have a program/database that figures all of this out for you, but I would like to know how to do it manually I guess sort of for peace of mind..ya know (if that’s at all possible). As an example..game #4 for Thursday January 24, 2013. How would you figure out the ‘Win Probability’ for the VISITOR, TIE & HOME and the ‘Player Edge’ for the VISITOR, TIE & HOME for this game? I want to fully understand the math and want to be able to do it on my own.
For now I'll start trying to cover them one at a time.
The game mentioned by mlanksy is a college basketball game Tennessee at Mississippi proline odds of 650/375/130. The Pinnacle line on the game is -8.5 (-108/-104).
In order to determine the various probabilities my program will try to determine the probability of each margin of win/loss of Mississippi. As a first step it references a database of past results using the 8.5 and the total as its reference points. The database will return an array of numbers with the probability of Mississippi winning by 1,2,3,4,5 etc (as well as -1,-2 etc). This array will then be tweaked to conform with the spread and money line. In this case we know that approx 49.5% of the time Mississippi will win by 9 or more so it will adjust the array of probabilities to agree with that. We also know from the money line what percentage of time Mississippi will win by 1 or more. This is also used to adjust all the probabilities.
There's a bit more to it then that, but that gives you the idea. Now of course we can determine all the outcomes by simply adding up the probabilities that are involved in the result we're analyzing. For the tie just take the sum of all the probabilities for win margins between -5 and +5. And the same procedure for proline V/H and also for the pointspread result.
Hope that helps,
PLP
Re: Proline Parlay Maker Question
PLP,ProlinePlayer wrote:Answering all of these is a bit of work so if anyone else wants to hop in feel free.mlansky wrote: 1. This may be a dumb question, but how do you figure out the ‘Win Probabilities’ and ‘Player Edge’ on your site just based off of the point spread of a particular game. Is there a formula to figure this out? I’m sure you have a program/database that figures all of this out for you, but I would like to know how to do it manually I guess sort of for peace of mind..ya know (if that’s at all possible). As an example..game #4 for Thursday January 24, 2013. How would you figure out the ‘Win Probability’ for the VISITOR, TIE & HOME and the ‘Player Edge’ for the VISITOR, TIE & HOME for this game? I want to fully understand the math and want to be able to do it on my own.
For now I'll start trying to cover them one at a time.
The game mentioned by mlanksy is a college basketball game Tennessee at Mississippi proline odds of 650/375/130. The Pinnacle line on the game is -8.5 (-108/-104).
In order to determine the various probabilities my program will try to determine the probability of each margin of win/loss of Mississippi. As a first step it references a database of past results using the 8.5 and the total as its reference points. The database will return an array of numbers with the probability of Mississippi winning by 1,2,3,4,5 etc (as well as -1,-2 etc). This array will then be tweaked to conform with the spread and money line. In this case we know that approx 49.5% of the time Mississippi will win by 9 or more so it will adjust the array of probabilities to agree with that. We also know from the money line what percentage of time Mississippi will win by 1 or more. This is also used to adjust all the probabilities.
There's a bit more to it then that, but that gives you the idea. Now of course we can determine all the outcomes by simply adding up the probabilities that are involved in the result we're analyzing. For the tie just take the sum of all the probabilities for win margins between -5 and +5. And the same procedure for proline V/H and also for the pointspread result.
Hope that helps,
PLP
Thanks for answering my first question.It sort of helps. I'm not going to say that it makes 100% sense, but I sort of get the juste of it now. Thank you for answering the first question. How long did it take you to develop a program that can do all of these probabilities?
Kind regards,
mlansky
-
ProlinePlayer
- Site Admin
- Posts: 2076
- Joined: Sun Mar 31, 2013 6:33 am
Re: Proline Parlay Maker Question
If the plays in the pointspread and proline lists are different I would just use the same starting bankroll for both sets. It would be more accurate to slightly lower the bankroll amount for both, but I personally don't bother.mlansky wrote: 2. How would the Kelly Criterion work when you're playing both Proline & Point Spread on the same day? Would you just make the Kelly from the same bankroll amount that you started with on that day? I’m just not clear on how to set up your bankroll when playing both Pro-Line & Point Spread plays on the same day. There were some nice PS edges on Wednesday January 23, 2013, so I tried playing them using the ‘Proline Parlay Maker’, but it never adjusted my bet size using the Kelly with regards to my bankroll. Every wager for every combo was $10 and the program generated 12 combos, so $120. Now I don’t think that was the correct bet size per combo. Am I doing something wrong in regards to setting up my rotations/combos?
However if the same plays are duplicated on both the proline list and pointspread list this is a case where you might want to use the Adj$ feature on these plays. I have no real rule for this - just use some common sense and you'll be fine.
On the pointspread tab check the panel labelled 'Bet Size Options'. The drop down selections should be set to Kelly(PLP) but seems to be going to 'By Fixed Bet Size' as a default. Change that and you should get different bet sizes.
PLP
Re: Proline Parlay Maker Question
PLP,ProlinePlayer wrote:If the plays in the pointspread and proline lists are different I would just use the same starting bankroll for both sets. It would be more accurate to slightly lower the bankroll amount for both, but I personally don't bother.mlansky wrote: 2. How would the Kelly Criterion work when you're playing both Proline & Point Spread on the same day? Would you just make the Kelly from the same bankroll amount that you started with on that day? I’m just not clear on how to set up your bankroll when playing both Pro-Line & Point Spread plays on the same day. There were some nice PS edges on Wednesday January 23, 2013, so I tried playing them using the ‘Proline Parlay Maker’, but it never adjusted my bet size using the Kelly with regards to my bankroll. Every wager for every combo was $10 and the program generated 12 combos, so $120. Now I don’t think that was the correct bet size per combo. Am I doing something wrong in regards to setting up my rotations/combos?
However if the same plays are duplicated on both the proline list and pointspread list this is a case where you might want to use the Adj$ feature on these plays. I have no real rule for this - just use some common sense and you'll be fine.
On the pointspread tab check the panel labelled 'Bet Size Options'. The drop down selections should be set to Kelly(PLP) but seems to be going to 'By Fixed Bet Size' as a default. Change that and you should get different bet sizes.
PLP
Thanks for clarifying this for me and letting me your recommended approach. I figured out the second part of this question a long time ago by just playing around with the program. I left the question in just in case any one new or any one else on the forum needed clarification for this in the future.
Kind regards & thanks again,
mlansky
Re: Proline Parlay Maker Question
PLP, just a quick question. My PLP membership expires after today, however my parlay maker program says my membership is expired. Shouldn't the 2 be the same expiry date?
-
ProlinePlayer
- Site Admin
- Posts: 2076
- Joined: Sun Mar 31, 2013 6:33 am
Re: Proline Parlay Maker Question
Scotty43 wrote:PLP, just a quick question. My PLP membership expires after today, however my parlay maker program says my membership is expired. Shouldn't the 2 be the same expiry date?
yes obviously this should be the case.No idea why it was different. The same program that allows/blocks access to the web page is being queried for your membership status so why it would allow one and not the other I have no idea.
Will try to check into it.
PLP