Finding win Exp

[NickVK]

Okay I think I got the hang of using the Parlay program. These were the games I have picked.
4H Key
10V Key
13V Key
15H Normal
14H Normal
12V Normal
7V Normal
6V Normal

Here's what I got
POINTSPREAD PARLAYS September 12, 2013 04:11 PM
Parlays Payout WinProb PlEdge BetSize
4H - 10V - 13V - 15H - 14H 20.00
4H - 10V - 13V - 15H - 12V 20.00
4H - 10V - 13V - 15H - 7V 20.00
4H - 10V - 13V - 15H - 6V 20.00
4H - 10V - 13V - 14H - 12V 20.00
4H - 10V - 13V - 14H - 7V 20.00
4H - 10V - 13V - 14H - 6V 20.00
4H - 10V - 13V - 12V - 7V 20.00
4H - 10V - 13V - 12V - 6V 20.00
4H - 10V - 13V - 7V - 6V 20.00
4H - 10V - 15H - 14H - 12V 20.00
4H - 10V - 15H - 14H - 7V 20.00
4H - 10V - 15H - 14H - 6V 20.00
4H - 10V - 15H - 12V - 7V 20.00
4H - 10V - 15H - 12V - 6V 20.00
4H - 10V - 15H - 7V - 6V 20.00
4H - 10V - 14H - 12V - 7V 20.00
4H - 10V - 14H - 12V - 6V 20.00
4H - 10V - 14H - 7V - 6V 20.00
4H - 10V - 12V - 7V - 6V 20.00
4H - 13V - 15H - 14H - 12V 20.00
4H - 13V - 15H - 14H - 7V 20.00
4H - 13V - 15H - 14H - 6V 20.00
4H - 13V - 15H - 12V - 7V 20.00
4H - 13V - 15H - 12V - 6V 20.00
4H - 13V - 15H - 7V - 6V 20.00
4H - 13V - 14H - 12V - 7V 20.00
4H - 13V - 14H - 12V - 6V 20.00
4H - 13V - 14H - 7V - 6V 20.00
4H - 13V - 12V - 7V - 6V 20.00
4H - 15H - 14H - 12V - 7V 20.00
4H - 15H - 14H - 12V - 6V 20.00
4H - 15H - 14H - 7V - 6V 20.00
4H - 15H - 12V - 7V - 6V 20.00
4H - 14H - 12V - 7V - 6V 20.00
10V - 13V - 15H - 14H - 12V 20.00
10V - 13V - 15H - 14H - 7V 20.00
10V - 13V - 15H - 14H - 6V 20.00
10V - 13V - 15H - 12V - 7V 20.00
10V - 13V - 15H - 12V - 6V 20.00
10V - 13V - 15H - 7V - 6V 20.00
10V - 13V - 14H - 12V - 7V 20.00
10V - 13V - 14H - 12V - 6V 20.00
10V - 13V - 14H - 7V - 6V 20.00
10V - 13V - 12V - 7V - 6V 20.00
10V - 15H - 14H - 12V - 7V 20.00
10V - 15H - 14H - 12V - 6V 20.00
10V - 15H - 14H - 7V - 6V 20.00
10V - 15H - 12V - 7V - 6V 20.00
10V - 14H - 12V - 7V - 6V 20.00
13V - 15H - 14H - 12V - 7V 20.00
13V - 15H - 14H - 12V - 6V 20.00
13V - 15H - 14H - 7V - 6V 20.00
13V - 15H - 12V - 7V - 6V 20.00
13V - 14H - 12V - 7V - 6V 20.00

Now I read this PQ picked these plays based on the discreptancy between the offshore line and the OLG line. The method promoted on this web site. For the purposes of the thread I've added some additional information to the above.
33v Kansas State -2.5 (-4.0 -110) 57.3%
42v UCLA -0.5 (-2.5 -104) 57.0%
34v SoCarolina +1.5 (-1.5 -110) 57.0%
36h Arkansas +0.5 (-1.5 -108) 54.2%
48h Colorado -0.5 (-2.0 -110) 56.1%
32v Villanova -1.5 (-2.5 -105) 53.8%

and this It should be clear now that we do not have a good play as UCLA at 57.0% does not meet the break even point. In fact playing UCLA gives an approximate loss rate of 2.5%.

In the article and I have a hard time figuring out how you get the win exp for each of those games. I know you want the win exp to be over %54.9 for 5 game point spread just curious how you are finding the win exp for each game.

Sorry for all the questions

[ProlinePlayer]

If you look in the Prolineplayer theory section you should find a thread there which involves a discussion between myself and mattykgb re determining the payout per game for point spread play depending on the size of the parlay.

Knowing the per game payment is needed to find the game's expected win rate.

PLP