POINTSPREAD GAMES LIST Thursday, March 05 2015

[sharpedgepicks]

I've won over $100k at least twice, cut and paste the link

http://sharpedgepicks.com/?page_id=154

Your turn to show us your success online...

[richhhh]

First off, I don't know how many units plp is up but I'm not going to argue with anyone above water this long in the game.
I would like to raise a point though :
Edges at pl are all predicated on line moves (obvious)

Edges are created from gathering a win% from a efficient pinnacle line. With this win% we have what is known as the fair price. If olg odds exceed fair price then this is a edge. The line does not need to move to have a edge.

We all know lines move on sharp action a lot of the time but, in my experience, hockey has more Public money and less sharp money than other sports. To me, line moves in the nhl have more to do with offshore guys wanting to balance their books.
If that's the case, the edges on nhl proline will be based, primarily, on joe public's plays.

I dont know where you got all that info. Is it possible for pinnacle to have a inefficient line? Yes it is. Do you not think smart money will find inefficiencies in market and correct it? I would think if nhl was constantly inefficient smart money will figure that out eventually and exploit it until it becomes efficient .

I had a great 1st half of the nhl season offshore fading public plays. I cannot imagine business was good with proline edge plays. I've noticed joe public has been better in the last so I don't fade offshore as much.

plp has posted a honest record and profited.We are talking a very large sample size.

Long post to say the obvious, you need sharp-initiated line moves to make money with edges on proline. A line move to balance books will have your edges tailing Joe Public. And that's no recipe for success.

plp has posted a honest record and profited.We are talking a very large sample size. Nothing more then betting edges gathered like explained above .

Ps- last night was a great proline edge on the cbk courts. Hope many of you cashed as well. Lord Gamblor knows we needed it

I must have missed those. Good luck on your current and future plays

[lonewarrior]

I understand where you come from since we have no way to know if it's the sharp or dumb money that moves the lines. Inevitably I believe there's a chance we do fade the offshore sharp once in a while. But in here we all play the waiting game; Waiting for the right alignment of the outcomes while we get paid more than the fair odds. That's the bottom line here. People here do not care about if it's CBJ or ARZ. As long as the price is right they jump on it.

Furthermore, I think it's actually mostly sharp money that moves the lines in NHL since it's a much smaller market than say NFL or NCAA.

[richhhh]

Couple things to consider as well. When we run plays are parlays are 10% edge or better.I mean some might play edges of smaller value but in general were not running to the store for a couple parlays with 1% edges and yes we are removing the vig so just because it pays more then pinny does not means it is a edge. Safe to say our average parlays have a 15% edge or so and 15% is a large cushion.Also we are usually on the underdog and if pinny does have a bad line in say a game between Arizona vs Vancouver where do you think it is? Likey not on the heavy favorite.

[Arch]

Couple things to consider as well. When we run plays are parlays are 10% edge or better.I mean some might play edges of smaller value but in general were not running to the store for a couple parlays with 1% edges and yes we are removing the vig so just because it pays more then pinny does not means it is a edge. Safe to say our average parlays have a 15% edge or so and 15% is a large cushion.Also we are usually on the underdog and if pinny does have a bad line in say a game between Arizona vs Vancouver where do you think it is? Likey not on the heavy favorite.

Exactly.

Just because MLS/NHL and other smaller market sports may not be as liquid or efficient as other bigger markets doesn't mean books like Pinny will have closing odds that are way off the true IWP%

Like Leo said before let's assume for argument sake there's ZERO sharp moves In NHL well again as Leo pointed out that doesn't mean the Public can't still win 50% of their wagers at -105/-110 on coin flip type games

So all we have to do is try to get better then +100 on those type of games on PL and everything will work itself out in the longrun just as it does for the offshore books.

Same idea for PS. The Public will win Over 60% on taking most NHL dogs at +1.5 offshore at -165-170ish All we got to do is find a bunch of those type of spreads that pay much better and we should be fine longterm just like most offshore books.


If you feel like any NHL spread edge is being shaped too much by public $ then easy solution is just play the higher payouts where u get -115/-110ish per game for 7/8/9 teamers and that should solve that issue. Obviously u won't hit those very much but that won't matter over time if you use decent $ management and etc

Just my 2cents

BOL to everyone this weekend

[Streaker]

Looking for that Michael Jackson meme, where he's eating popcorn and the caption says "I'm just here to read the comments"

All this is bringing back memory's of the old big tip.ca days. Looking forward to reading more.


Have a great weekend guys

[Pay the Man]

I've won over $100k at least twice, cut and paste the link
http://sharpedgepicks.com/?page_id=154
Your turn to show us your success online...

Very proud of ya. That is a nice pull
What do you mean "at least twice" .... Might have happened other times and you forgot? Slipped your mind?

One of the major reasons I've never hit a 6-team bomber parlay is because I never play a 6-team bomber parlay.

I've withdrawn more from pinny/sports int than I've deposited though. And while I haven't tracked, expect I'm well above breakeven w/ PL

[skalba]

You must be some kind of genius to know that your return is 13% without tracking your bets.

[Pay the Man]

Do you mean all the math wiz tails around here have never looked at the incredible advantages offered by OLG regarding where you buy tickets and how you pay for tickets?

As I've said now 3 times ... I get 12-14% return on my olg spend OUTSIDE of PL edges around here. As in EVERY dollar I spend on a PROLINE ticket returns 12-14c BEFORE any edges relating to lines. Not sure how many more ways I can say it and still have it incorrectly interpreted

Feel like I came to a camp fire and snuffed out the flame. And that's not cool. Wasn't my intention. I don't take well to certain posters getting this notion they're sharp players. We all play proline on the backs of real people handicapping. Don't get lost in some hype about being a tout of sorts.

A 7-year old could do what we do if he could reach the top of the counter to hand in his OLG slips. Don't get carried away here ...

[Slips]

Do you mean all the math wiz tails around here have never looked at the incredible advantages offered by OLG regarding where you buy tickets and how you pay for tickets?

what are you talking about here PTM?