PROPS CARD 68 Hockey Chicago - Vancouver Thursday, Oct 31

[tshi2015]

PROPS CARD 68 Hockey Chicago - Vancouver Thursday, October 31 2018 1 Toews,J ShotsOnGoal 3.0 170 170 2 Saad,B ShotsOnGoal 2.0 170 170 3 Seabrook,B ShotsOnGoal 2.5 180 160 4 Horvat,B ShotsOnGoal 2.5 170 170 5 Goldobin,N ShotsOnGoal 2.0 180 160 6 Keith,D Assists 0.5 210 145 7 DebrincatA Assists 0.5 200 150 8 Boeser,B Assists 0.5 190 155 9 Kane,P Goals 0.5 180 160 10 PettersnEl Goals 0.5 180 160 11 Chicago FaceOffsWon 31.5 165 175 12 Vancouver FaceOffsWon 30.5 180 160

[pedge]

How accurate are these prop edges?

[richhhh]

Yesterday My plays were -60% according to PLP and went (lle). Today my plays are similar to PLP (which have allready starting to lle) . Follow the lle's and you can have all the moneys in the world.

[pedge]

Yesterday My plays were -60% according to PLP and went (lle). Today my plays are similar to PLP (which have allready starting to lle) . Follow the lle's and you can have all the moneys in the world.

can you post some nice 4-6 pick parlays ?

[Edward]

2OV-3UN-11UN LLE

[Biffalo Buff]

How accurate are these prop edges?

I had put some numbers together previously to attempt to answer this question. If one were to have bet $100 on each individual prop bet that had an edge of 5.0% or higher for the 2017-2018 NHL season one would have bet on 249 outcomes (for a total wager of $24 900). The return would have been $25 365 for a return of +1.9%.

Breaking things down by bet type:
One would have bet on 123 shots on goal outcomes. The avearge PLP calculated edge was 11.0%. The amount wagered would have been $12 300 and the return would have been $11 695 for a return of -4.9%.

There were 53 assist props with PLP calculated edges of 5% or more. The average edge of these was 8.8%. The amount wagered would have been $5300 and the return would have been $5350 for a return of about 1%

There were 22 goal props with PLP calculated edges of 5% or more. Their average edge was 8.6%. The amount wagered would have been $2200 and the return was $2075 for a return of -5.6%.

One would have bet on 51 Faceoffs Won props with an average edge of 11.4%. The $5100 wagered would have payed out $6245 for a return of about 22.5%.

Note that samples sizes are too small to draw any firm conclusions.

Thanks very much to PLP for setting up and sharing the NHL props calculator on his website. Thanks to Darth Wager on another forum who has regularly collected and posted props results. Without his efforts no retrospective analysis would be possible as I'm not aware of any other archived results.

[bangminton]

Thanks Biff for the detailed analysis. Excellent work! Do you have the # for previous seasons for comparison?

I can only speak for myself but my ROI for NHL Props was also less last year, compared to previous years and my numbers were similar to PLP, for the most part.

Did you see more profitability for Visitor F/O edges?

[Biffalo Buff]

I hadn't done this for any prior seasons Bang.

I hadn't looked specifically at Visitor's faceoffs specifically but went back and did.

There were 51 FO outcomes that had a PLP calculated edge of 5.0% or more. 28 were for visitors. Only 5 of these 28 bets lost. $2800 wagered would have paid out $4050 for a return of 45%. I take it Bang you had tracked your results and found that Visitor's FOs paid out fairly well last year?

The $2100 wagered on home team FO outcomes would have paid back $2295 for a return of 9%

[bangminton]

Yes Buff, if you did a search, you will see some good discussion about FaceOffs when they first introduced NHL Props about 5 years ago. Visitor F/Os were a good value then, depending on the numbers obviously, and is still a good value now but I find myself picking my spots more this year as the numbers have been fairly tight, across the board.