Pinnacle odds / PLP Calculations not matching up

[danddd]

I've noticed a few situations where Pinny odds don't seem to be matching up with PLP odds. Maybe someone (PLP? MattyKGB?) can provide some insight.

#1: WCLC NHL tie #s

These do not match up with Pinny regulation time odds. Ties are less likely using Pinny regulation time odds vs the PLP odds. As a result, calculations of tie-unders are wrong (looks like plays when there are not plays), and the likelihood of teams winning in regulation (usually favorites) are underestimated.

#2: BCLC NHL 6.5 totals

BCLC includes OT but not SO. The only time a game will be over 6.5 using a sportsbook's OT included odds and under on BCLC is when a game goes to a shootout @3-3. The (approx) likelihood of that happening is around 2% but based on PLP 6.5 odds PLP is treating it as having a 7-9% chance of happening. This leads to u6.5s appearing to be plays when they are not. It is also likely impacting -.5 and +.5 PS PLP prices.

Am I wrong? What am I missing? How do we fix this? Thanks - any insight is appreciated

[richhhh]

#1: WCLC NHL tie #s

These do not match up with Pinny regulation time odds. Ties are less likely using Pinny regulation time odds vs the PLP odds. As a result, calculations of tie-unders are wrong (looks like plays when there are not plays), and the likelihood of teams winning in regulation (usually favorites) are underestimated.

PLP does not use Pinnacle sports for line data. So comparing 3 way regulation market from Pinnacle sports is not going to align with his probability's exactly . Its possible he does not even use a 3 way market.

#2: BCLC NHL 6.5 totals

BCLC includes OT but not SO. The only time a game will be over 6.5 using a sportsbook's OT included odds and under on BCLC is when a game goes to a shootout @3-3. The (approx) likelihood of that happening is around 2% but based on PLP 6.5 odds PLP is treating it as having a 7-9% chance of happening. This leads to u6.5s appearing to be plays when they are not. It is also likely impacting -.5 and +.5 PS PLP prices.

The games have started and lines are down but if what your saying about the rules of BCLC are true it appears plp's over/under probability's for totals of 6.5 are not right ( For the games tonight anyways )

[richhhh]

Who the hell serves 1.68/1.68 lines lmao.

[richhhh]

#1: WCLC NHL tie #s

These do not match up with Pinny regulation time odds. Ties are less likely using Pinny regulation time odds vs the PLP odds. As a result, calculations of tie-unders are wrong (looks like plays when there are not plays), and the likelihood of teams winning in regulation (usually favorites) are underestimated.

Looking at the tie unders this morning I see all the totals of 6.5 have edges. This makes sense to me if this is in regulation only . Looking up recent 4000 games 20% of them had tied scores of 1,2 or 3. PLP numbers look good to me. Wish I had these to bet.

[snapple]

#1: WCLC NHL tie #s

These do not match up with Pinny regulation time odds. Ties are less likely using Pinny regulation time odds vs the PLP odds. As a result, calculations of tie-unders are wrong (looks like plays when there are not plays), and the likelihood of teams winning in regulation (usually favorites) are underestimated.

Looking at the tie unders this morning I see all the totals of 6.5 have edges. This makes sense to me if this is in regulation only . Looking up recent 4000 games 20% of them had tied scores of 1,2 or 3. PLP numbers look good to me. Wish I had these to bet.

SJ=Nash - PLP "odds" 4.03, Pinny odds (vig removed) 4.7 4.5 (w/o vig removal)

TB=Fla - PLP "odds" 3.94 , Pinny odds (vig removed) 4.4 4.22 (w/o vig removal)

If you think the PLP numbers look good I suggest playing the tie odds on Pinny...free money!

[richhhh]

SJ=Nash - PLP "odds" 4.03, Pinny odds (vig removed) 4.7 4.5 (w/o vig removal)

TB=Fla - PLP "odds" 3.94 , Pinny odds (vig removed) 4.4 4.22 (w/o vig removal)

If you think the PLP numbers look good I suggest playing the tie odds on Pinny...free money!

I was referring to the tie/under which admittedly I am less confident about now .Nice catch Snapple that is a massive difference with the Tie calculations compared to Pinnacle. Regardless if PLP uses Pinnacle or not there should not be that large of difference or like you say just bet into Pinnacle's line.I dunno what is up maybe PLP is using a highly juiced 3 way market that is messing with the ties probability?
I look forward to looking into Nhl ties as they are apparently less frequent then I remember maybe due to increased scoring.

[danddd]

Just wanted to follow up on this topic since it doesn't look like there is much interest. In BC today the Col=CSU tie is listed as a play on PLP and it cites PINNACLE line of -4.5. However Pinnacle does not offer that # anywhere on their site. The correct odds appear to be -6.5 and it can be bought down to -5.5. So where is Prolineplayer getting this information? It does not appear to be a play based on actual pinnacle lines. Thanks!

[snapple]

Just wanted to follow up on this topic since it doesn't look like there is much interest. In BC today the Col=CSU tie is listed as a play on PLP and it cites PINNACLE line of -4.5. However Pinnacle does not offer that # anywhere on their site. The correct odds appear to be -6.5 and it can be bought down to -5.5. So where is Prolineplayer getting this information? It does not appear to be a play based on actual pinnacle lines. Thanks!

There is another game today that is 2 pts off PLP vs Pinny

[danddd]

It looks like any time PLP site uses "Pinnacle" odds they are wrong. Bunch more games are pretty far off in BC today (eg Evansville tie). Does PLP himself still post in these forums? I love the site so much and it's such a great resource if only these issues could be fixed.

[snapple]

I also really enjoy the site but I often wonder about the "edges" that aren't directly derived from existing betting markets. I understand comparing an NHL moneyline but struggle to understand how to calculate a cbb tie, for example...

It's clear that some things are wrong - I just wonder how many other things are also wrong.