Hockey Props Stars - Degree of Confidence?

[OriginalOpportunist]

PLP, not sure how accurate your settings are to capture hockey prop edges. I rarely play them and do not recall doing well on them.

Today it is lit up like a X-mas tree, so just putting it out there for you and other players to comment on the degree of confidence using those edges to put some plays together.

[McGuire72]

I don't trust em and never really have. Not sure how everyone else feels. I'm more comfortable using PLP for PL/PS edges and calculate my own for props, NHL or otherwise.

[prt]

hi, in my opinion hockey props is much better to bet compare than for example to basketball. in basketball they can sit down main players by end of 3rd quarter if team already winning big. in hockey all players play whole game, unless injured of course. plus, if team playing like leafs yesterday and losing, i will expect most plays under. that just my opinion, ty, prt

[Biffalo Buff]

Hi OriginalOpportunist. I had looked into this question a couple of years ago. I found my old post and will copy and paste it below.

How accurate are these prop edges?

I had put some numbers together previously to attempt to answer this question. If one were to have bet $100 on each individual prop bet that had an edge of 5.0% or higher for the 2017-2018 NHL season one would have bet on 249 outcomes (for a total wager of $24 900). The return would have been $25 365 for a return of +1.9%.

Breaking things down by bet type:
One would have bet on 123 shots on goal outcomes. The avearge PLP calculated edge was 11.0%. The amount wagered would have been $12 300 and the return would have been $11 695 for a return of -4.9%.

There were 53 assist props with PLP calculated edges of 5% or more. The average edge of these was 8.8%. The amount wagered would have been $5300 and the return would have been $5350 for a return of about 1%

There were 22 goal props with PLP calculated edges of 5% or more. Their average edge was 8.6%. The amount wagered would have been $2200 and the return was $2075 for a return of -5.6%.

One would have bet on 51 Faceoffs Won props with an average edge of 11.4%. The $5100 wagered would have payed out $6245 for a return of about 22.5%.

Note that samples sizes are too small to draw any firm conclusions.

Thanks very much to PLP for setting up and sharing the NHL props calculator on his website. Thanks to Darth Wager on another forum who has regularly collected and posted props results. Without his efforts no retrospective analysis would be possible as I'm not aware of any other archived results.

[Legal_Bookie]

Yes

[bangminton]

Thanks for posting/re-posting your analysis, Biff!

Do you recall if it was ever discussed why F/O edges were way more profitable than the SOGs and goals/assists? I don't know if that still holds true for last year/this year results but certainly something worth digging further.

Good to see 2 NHL Props Cards today, my guess is our Crown Corp. friends are hurting for revenues during this (extended) lockdown as well

[Shapiro_knose2]

Dotty yes