Baseball

[ChinMusic]

June 1: Won 0, Lost 1

Bet 396.83
Cash 0
Net -396.83

Totals: Won 32, Lost 34

Bet 30347.93
Cash 31357.17
Net 1009.24

[BorntoBet89]

Tough to lose that one Chin.

[ChinMusic]

Tough to lose that one Chin.

Yeah, there have been a few tough losses lately. That Moore vs. Kluber game last night was my best value of the season. Couldn't believe the odds they gave for Cleveland. And then the rains came after 1.5 innings and the starters were done. That one hurt.

[ChinMusic]

June 2:

Milwaukee Brewers 2-June-2013 10:35 AM PST
Money Line for Game 2.600
M. Fiers must start / C. Lee must start
Risking 312.50 to Win 500.00 CAD

Chicago Cubs 2-June-2013 11:20 AM PST
Money Line for Game 2.190
P. Corbin must start / E. Jackson must start
Risking 420.17 to Win 500.00 CAD

[ProlinePlayer]

June 2:

Milwaukee Brewers 2-June-2013 10:35 AM PST
Money Line for Game 2.600
M. Fiers must start / C. Lee must start
Risking 312.50 to Win 500.00 CAD

Chicago Cubs 2-June-2013 11:20 AM PST
Money Line for Game 2.190
P. Corbin must start / E. Jackson must start
Risking 420.17 to Win 500.00 CAD

Chin,

In the Brewers game the market seems to agree with you as the line on the game has dropped quite a bit.

However, in the Cubs game the line has gone the other way and the Cubs are now 2.24. What I was wondering was, if the line moves against your play, would you now consider this as a case of the value on the play is now even better than before. Or would you see this as throwing some doubt on your own analysis and making you more hesitant in playing the Cubs.

PLP

[ChinMusic]

June 2:

Milwaukee Brewers 2-June-2013 10:35 AM PST
Money Line for Game 2.600
M. Fiers must start / C. Lee must start
Risking 312.50 to Win 500.00 CAD

Chicago Cubs 2-June-2013 11:20 AM PST
Money Line for Game 2.190
P. Corbin must start / E. Jackson must start
Risking 420.17 to Win 500.00 CAD

Chin,

In the Brewers game the market seems to agree with you as the line on the game has dropped quite a bit.

However, in the Cubs game the line has gone the other way and the Cubs are now 2.24. What I was wondering was, if the line moves against your play, would you now consider this as a case of the value on the play is now even better than before. Or would you see this as throwing some doubt on your own analysis and making you more hesitant in playing the Cubs.

PLP

The market agrees with me more often than not. My average edge over the closing line is about 3%, both this year and last year. In cases like the Cubs game where the line goes the other way, I assume it's stuff I don't know about, like injuries or lineup changes. And it could also indicate a weakness in my predictive model. I am the first to admit that it's not perfect. With a bit of work I could probably figure out which teams I should be more hesitant about betting on. Haven't done that yet though.

[ChinMusic]

June 3:

Pittsburgh Pirates 3-June-2013 4:10 PM PST
Money Line for Game 2.280
A. Burnett must start / K. Medlen must start
Risking 390.63 to Win 500.01 CAD

Colorado Rockies 3-June-2013 4:10 PM PST
Money Line for Game 2.370
T. Chatwood must start / B. Arroyo must start
Risking 364.96 to Win 500.00 CAD

Seattle Mariners 3-June-2013 7:10 PM PST
Money Line for Game 1.926
J. Danks must start / J. Saunders must start
Risking 540.00 to Win 500.00 CAD

[ProlinePlayer]

another ?

I've noticed that with only very rare exceptions all your plays are to win $500 instead of some variation of Kelly.

Let me guess,

I would guess that you are confident of your overall edge but not so confident in the specific expected values your models returns on the individual games.

?

PLP

[ChinMusic]

another ?

I've noticed that with only very rare exceptions all your plays are to win $500 instead of some variation of Kelly.

Let me guess,

I would guess that you are confident of your overall edge but not so confident in the specific expected values your models returns on the individual games.

?

PLP

Yes, you have it right. The games I pick usually have edges somewhere between +9 and +15 according to my model. Since my rate of return is under 8%, I know I'm overestimating my edge. I also don't have enough confidence to say that my +15 game is truly better than my +9 game, so I assume an edge of about +5% for all games and play it that way. Once in a while I calculate a much higher edge so I will increase my stake when that happens.

[ChinMusic]

June 2: Won 0, Lost 2

Bet 732.67
Cash 0
Net -732.67

Totals: Won 32, Lost 36

Bet 31080.60
Cash 31357.17
Net 276.57