NFL Props: Sacks & Fumbles Correlation

[bangminton]

Hey guys, just wondering if you think there's still value in Sacks/Fumbles Correlation for NFL Props?

I tracked this type of correlation for 2 years on Cappers & TMB and it's about 50% (Over/Over and Under/Under). That's not saying much as we only had about 4 Props Cards on any given week so the sample size may not be big enough. With that said, this correlation was nowhere near as good as the QB/WR/TE combos and RB/Long Rush combo.

This site has a bigger sample size (non playoff games from 2000 through week 10 of 2009) and sacks-fumbles are lost 47% of the time.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/01 ... -type.html

I have seen books posting Prop numbers for Sacks (most notably theGreek) but I have yet to see anyone posting Prop numbers for Fumbles. Could that be due to the random nature of Fumbles Recoveries and other factors as fumbles can happen due to weather, offense, defense, and special teams?

Thoughts?

[ChinMusic]

Logically there should be a correlation. When you see a QB get sacked, it's not uncommon for him to fumble the ball. And a few seasons ago when I first looked at this, I found some decent level of correlation. Last year when I re-checked it, the correlation was precisely zero. I'm not sure what that means.

[bangminton]

Logically there should be a correlation. When you see a QB get sacked, it's not uncommon for him to fumble the ball. And a few seasons ago when I first looked at this, I found some decent level of correlation. Last year when I re-checked it, the correlation was precisely zero. I'm not sure what that means.

Are you more inclined to take Sacks Over/Fumbles Over, as opposed to Sacks Under/Fumbles Under then Chin?

My rationale is if Sacks goes Over, there's a good chance (I don't know what % it is, mathematically speaking, with a big sample size) Fumbles will go Over. If Sacks stays Under (mobile QBs, more running plays than passing plays, teams with average front 7), I don't know if we can conclusively say Fumbles will more than likely stay Under the posted #s as well because it can happen in other ways (muffed hand-to-hand snap from center to QB, RBs, special teams returning punts etc)

[fantastic666]

2 things I wanna mention,

First, OLG give us 'Fumble lost'. I agree to bang if all fumble #s are considered. Even if Fumble happen, difficult to forsee who's gonna recover the ball.

Second, my own thinkin & I consider it for Fumble lost of OLG Props. May sounds illogical, but I rarely bet against this thinking.

Fumblin is like...habit. Turnover prone team, or fumble prone team, RBs who has fumbling issues throughout their career, it's simply hard to get rid of. Funny a team like Patriots under Coach Hoody, rarely fumbles & show low #s of turnovers, while there are lots of poorly coached teams that commits turnovers & fumbles like there's no tomorrow.

Whenever 2011SD chargers appeared on Props, I never bet Fumble Under, that team was notorious for Special team blunders & turnovers.

just my thoughts,