MLB home/away totals

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MattyKGB
Posts: 217
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2013 5:27 pm

MLB home/away totals

Post by MattyKGB » Mon Jul 01, 2013 12:03 pm

Home teams today are:

-188
-155
+103
-133
-134
+146
+101

Total away runs +111
Total home runs -120

Does this seem a little off to anyone else? I would have thought that home would be a much stronger fav than -120. Does the "visiting team gets full at bats in 9th inning + extra innings" thing make that much of a difference?

MattyKGB
Posts: 217
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2013 5:27 pm

Re: MLB home/away totals

Post by MattyKGB » Mon Jul 01, 2013 12:09 pm

Maybe it's right after all. 7 games today, the home teams can expect to win 4 of them...so that's 63 innings of at-bats for the visiting teams vs 59 for the home teams. Those extra 4 innings are worth around 2 runs...and I'd estimated the home teams to be favoured by around 2 runs from the individual game lines.

That's a pretty good "trap" line, I bet a lot of people get fooled into seeing value on the home side like I did. Maybe that means there's an edge on the V side?

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