NFL - Wong Teasers

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ProlinePlayer
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NFL - Wong Teasers

Post by ProlinePlayer » Fri Jul 26, 2013 12:43 pm

Nfl is coming ............

About last year at this time, I got an email from Louie of BigTip days wondering if Wong teasers (described by Stanford Wong in his book Sharp Sports Betting) still were effective today. The data in Wong's book being somewhat out of date I ran the numbers myself.

For anyone who does not know what Wong teasers are check out this site for more detail Wizard of Odds - NFL Teasers

Using the same format as used by the Wizard of Odds, I ran the most common teasers through my database using the years 1994 -> 2012.

6.0 Point Wong Teasers Bet Games Wins Loss Push Win% Home Underdogs 183 143 40 0 78.1 Home Favourites 196 143 51 2 73.7 Visit Underdogs 296 212 82 2 72.1 Visit Favourites 60 42 18 0 70.0 All Home 379 286 91 2 75.9 All Visit 356 254 100 2 71.8 All Underdogs 479 355 122 2 74.4 All Favourites 256 185 69 2 72.8 All 735 540 191 4 73.9 6.5 Point Wong Teasers Bet Games Wins Loss Push Win% Home Underdogs 338 252 84 2 75.0 Home Favourites 322 240 78 4 75.5 Visit Underdogs 473 343 127 3 73.0 Visit Favourites 97 65 30 2 68.4 All Home 660 492 162 6 75.2 All Visit 570 408 157 5 72.2 All Underdogs 811 595 211 5 73.8 All Favourites 419 305 108 6 73.8 All 1230 900 319 11 73.8 7.0 Point Wong Teasers Bet Games Wins Loss Push Win% Home Underdogs 338 254 81 3 75.8 Home Favourites 426 325 98 3 76.8 Visit Underdogs 473 346 123 4 73.8 Visit Favourites 128 87 41 0 68.0 All Home 764 579 179 6 76.4 All Visit 601 433 164 4 72.5 All Underdogs 811 600 204 7 74.6 All Favourites 554 412 139 3 74.8 All 1365 1012 343 10 74.7

ProlinePlayer
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Re: NFL - Wong Teasers

Post by ProlinePlayer » Fri Jul 26, 2013 1:03 pm

A couple of observations on the above data.

First
It may be tempting to try to cherry pick the best spots. For example, the win rate for 6 point teasers is only 73.9%, but if we just bet the home underdogs we can improve that to 78.1%. Much better?
In the article in the Wizard of Odds, he states that in his opinion the only relevant number in the chart is the 'All' value. The differences in the other categories are just normal variance due to small sample sizes. I agree. My own opinion is also based on having seeing variations on this chart many times and which subsection is best tends to change depending on what years are sampled. Also if something like Home Underdogs were really stronger then we would expect to see that reflected in other areas. Why not in 6.5 and 7 point teasers? Also if one runs a chart of value for extra points there no longer seems to be a significant bias towards any of these categories.

Second
When Stanford Wong wrote his book the primary focus was on the 6 point 2 team teaser. But things have changed since those days. In his time the 6 point (2) teaser paid even money. Although this varies from book to book, the best you are going to find is laying 11-10 on these. At 11-10 you now need a win rate of 72.37%. As you can see, the chart beats that at 73.9, but it's close.

Third
Again with reference to the 6 point 2 team parlay there has been another change. In Wong's time (and actually still today in Vegas), if one game resulted in a push than the entire teaser was called a push, regardless of whether the other half won or lost. Today, the online books consider a push + win as a push, but grade a push + loss as a loss. Obviously this works against the player. It has not been factored into the break even point above and I suspect that with this added in that a 73.9% win rate may now be -ev.

Fourth
Books are sharper than they were in the old days and aside from lowering teaser payouts have also made Wong teasers harder to find. Take a game were the right line is -8.5 (-110/-110). A perfect Wong opportunity as it teases (6 points) down to -2.5, crossing both the key numbers. Books will now change this line to something line -9 (+100/-120). By changing the value to 9 and favouring the dog on the money for point spread purposes things remain the same. But they've eliminated the Wong teaser. The same is also often done even with 8 point favourites.

ProlinePlayer
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Re: NFL - Wong Teasers

Post by ProlinePlayer » Fri Jul 26, 2013 1:07 pm

Anyways,

for those getting ready for the NFL season, I hope the above data helps.

I would assume that most here already understand Wong teasers and hope you find the above charts useful. For those who don't it's another option to consider when making your plays. How good or not they actually are I'll leave to your own judgement.

Anyone have any thoughts on this please hop in.

PLP

Arch
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Re: NFL - Wong Teasers

Post by Arch » Fri Jul 26, 2013 10:57 pm

Great Stuff PLP. I shared your insights and findings with my twitter followers as many of em love betting NFL teasers offshore.

Kaboshed
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Re: NFL - Wong Teasers

Post by Kaboshed » Fri Aug 02, 2013 3:03 pm

The payout changes offshore have made these extinct

Kaboshed
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Re: NFL - Wong Teasers

Post by Kaboshed » Fri Aug 02, 2013 3:06 pm

Challenge anyone to find a book that offers 6p -110, +180, +300 teasers that also pays you when you win

ProlinePlayer
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Re: NFL - Wong Teasers

Post by ProlinePlayer » Sun Aug 04, 2013 11:05 am

Kaboshed wrote:Challenge anyone to find a book that offers 6p -110, +180, +300 teasers that also pays you when you win
I had no idea the situation was this bad. I thought that there were still some reputable books dealing 6 points teasers at 11-10.

If not then I would agree, teasers, wong or otherwise, are a total waste of money.

PLP

Kaboshed
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Re: NFL - Wong Teasers

Post by Kaboshed » Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:52 am

ProlinePlayer wrote:
Kaboshed wrote:Challenge anyone to find a book that offers 6p -110, +180, +300 teasers that also pays you when you win
I had no idea the situation was this bad. I thought that there were still some reputable books dealing 6 points teasers at 11-10.

If not then I would agree, teasers, wong or otherwise, are a total waste of money.

PLP
There's a couple, but you can't RR them or anything. Sucks.

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