CoronaVirus impact on ProLine

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bangminton
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Re: CoronaVirus impact on ProLine

Post by bangminton » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:04 am

sub, you may wish to remove your email or display it in a different format. Lots of bots scraping websites for emails for spam purposes.

bangminton
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Re: CoronaVirus impact on ProLine

Post by bangminton » Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:04 pm

MLS suspending its season until further notice and NHL just cancelled all morning skates, awaiting upcoming announcements.

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richhhh
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Re: CoronaVirus impact on ProLine

Post by richhhh » Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:20 am

Imagine trying to predict this going forward. What a complicated process.
For instance lets say we would like a estimated total number of coronaVirus cases to date. Total confirmed cases in my opinion is a useless stat. Total confirmed deaths might be more predictive but we need a ratio of cases to deaths. I google this but could only get confirmed cases and death ratios( around 3%) When looking at this live real time counter https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw you can clearly see some countries do not follow the laws of probability given a 3% death rate ( altho there is obviously death lag). So looking at Germany for instance using a 3 percent death rate and its confirmed 4000 cases its not possible to have only 8 deaths. Now if instead of 3/100 deaths from corona virus maybe it is something like 1/500 making sense of Germany. To date there is worldwide 149000 confirmed cases and 5500 deaths but giving the above logic there is estimated 2.75 million cases far greater then confirmed 149000 cases. There is a lot wrong with what I just did and my morning coffee fat kid analyzes here does not hold weight against expert predictions and professionals but does anyone have a expert prediction on this? I cant find one.
Imagine trying to predict the future cases on this and stamp your name on it. So many variables .Maybe next coffee . I am impressed with the measures taken to control hospital beds not a easy decision to basically shut down daily life when most people still comparing this to the flu.
Cheers everyone.

tshi2015
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Re: CoronaVirus impact on ProLine

Post by tshi2015 » Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:53 am

I am sure there is under diagnosis Rich, some people only have very mild symptoms and may resolve before they are tested. Also from what I read a lot of children exhibit minimal symptoms. At least death rate is low for people under 65, so preventing this from spreading in nursing homes will be key priority, and access to senior homes etc should be restricted imo

Biffalo Buff
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Re: CoronaVirus impact on ProLine

Post by Biffalo Buff » Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:35 pm

I see the wording on the Proline website has changed from yesterday to today.

Yesterday the message was “please be assured that we will make as many events for wagering available as possible”. The message today is different, “OLG is currently not able to offer any sports wagering”. I was surprised by the wording of yesterday’s message. I think OLGs current approach is much more in the interest of public health. I would be surprised if OLG goes out of their way to offer sports that they don’t usually offer in order to make games available for wagering. While this might be interesting for those here, it would encourage people to go out for rather unnecessary trips to buy lottery products. Pretty counter productive given the importance of social isolation. This also has poor optics for a government organization. I would be surprised if OLG offers any new sports / events in the next few weeks. At least not until the decision is made to lift social isolation and resume school.

I think you are absolutely correct rich that there is significant under diagnosis. Many of the least sick and asymptomatic infected simply don’t get tested. Even people who are symptomatic but don’t need hospitalization are frequently not being tested. This is true in Ontario as many public health units are still using criteria for testing of fever or cough plus travel to one of the 7 most affected countries (missing all the other countries in the world plus community spread).

Using a closed system is more likely to give accurate numbers for mortality. The Diamond Princess cruise ship had I believe 700 cases and 8 deaths. It would be very unlikely that a case would be missed on that cruise ship. This gives a mortality of just over 1%. However, as the biggest factor affecting mortality seems to be age, it may be tough to generalize this stat to everyone. The death rate under age 10 is so far 0.0% and for those over age 80 closer to 15%. So any mortality stat is affected by both the intensity of testing plus the demographics (age) of the population being studied.

As to whether there could still be a 2-3% death rate in Germany, I doubt it but it’s possible. To calculate mortality it is best to use (number of deaths)/(resolved cases), where resolved cases = deaths plus recovered. It remains to be seen what the mortality of the 4000 cases in Germany will be. It may go up with time if those 4000 cases were early in the course of the illness. Or Germany’s mortality may remain low if time shows that the they conducted extensive testing and identified many mild cases.

Legal_Bookie
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Re: CoronaVirus impact on ProLine

Post by Legal_Bookie » Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:03 am

it hurts 😿

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richhhh
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Re: CoronaVirus impact on ProLine

Post by richhhh » Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:32 am

subzero wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:26 pm
You guys want to know what else you will need to gamble on??
skulrocket@gmail.com
Good luck gents

Why do we need to email you ? Why can you just not just say what you are gambling on?

Biff you need to talk much more my friend .

tshi2015
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Re: CoronaVirus impact on ProLine

Post by tshi2015 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:27 pm

Florida and Louisiana will be next epicenter I predict, lots of poor people, old people, scattered healthcare resources plus government was late to wake up.

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